anyer re: Oilstocks...........
If I can keep getting some well timed Short-Trades and get my $5,$10 pullbacks... that allows some very significant returns on $1.50 - $2/$3 Puts...it adds up.
The OSX should have strong support at 150 as long as Oil stays above $55ish....I don't know if we'll get there on this move - I don't really think so, given the bullishess and those who have partaken of Matt Simmons Peak Oil-Kool-Aid and their expectations of a Massive Q4 Oil Shock.
- again, just a 5-10 fold increase in Oil according to Simmons... $300 to $600 Oil .... PT Barnum, Mary Meeker & Henry Blodgett live on....
Technically, that longterm resistance at OSX 150 will ultimately have to be retested as support. I'm not getting greedy.... one day it will keep rolling over and I'll just keep rolling over puts deeper & deeper. Crude Oil is in disconnect... all that is required is patience and prudence - keep nicking away and wait for the trap door to finally open...when, not if - it will.
Today's PPI news along with all of the commentary coming out of Retail, along with what we've already seen in the Heartland - re: a +33% year over year increase in Foreclosures.... the Economy is heading for a Recession.
The US is the Economic Engine that drive the Global Economy and Bad Macro Economic's are the deathknell to good Micro Oilpatch fundamentals.
I'll repeat that I think Greenspan is in a battle to get rates to a level to where the Fed can once again cut rates and re-stimulate the Economy next year...The Fed see's what's on the Horizon.
They'll be cutting rates and reflating the Economy once again when it becomes clear that the Economy is rolling over and the Debt & Credit House of Cards is collapsing...
THAT reflation - which will more than likely be Bernanke's Helicopter Drop of Fiat-Maximus... will be THE event that unleashes rampant inflation, launches Gold parabolically and collapses the US Dollar to real "crisis" levels.... it could get very, very ugly.
PS: I see many of our former Pom-Pom waving Goldbugs are once gain making their best trades "after the fact", or have disappeared under the Porch, only to re-emerge once again after the fact - glad they either sold, or held...which ever way the tape turned...
- whodathunkit ?
Some things never change.
Couldn't find them at the bottom and they wouldn't stay in for more than 3 tic's on the +40 Point move in 20 Trading Days on the way up and then at the interim tops, they come out doing backflips and waving pom-poms as others cash in...
Retail getting whacked...but, it looks like someone already knew these bad numbers were coming vis a vis Abercrombie & Fitch's miss:
finance.yahoo.com
later, |
