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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (41695)	11/2/2021 7:14:35 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Recommended By Lee Lichterman III rimshot Read Replies (2) of 97457

I did not say a crash was immanent. I do not think a recession will start within the next 12 months. Overvalued stocks can become more overvalued. But ReversionToTheMean is inevitable (timing uncertain). I think volatility will increase in 2022. We will see NYA dip below its 200dma, and SPX dips of 10%+. Stocks will go sideways, at most up slightly, in 2022. < Absolute valuations don't mean anything. Only relative valuations matter. By that measure, relative to the bond yields, stocks are not excessively valued.> I agree. But, I think bond yields are likely to go higher (how much lower could they possibly go?). If that happens, stock valuations should come down. I predict TNX will be in a 1.5-3% range in 2022, and we are currently at the bottom of that range. When/if TNX reaches 3%, what PE and dividend yield will SPX have? You do not think that record margin debt, is a sign of overvalued stocks? You do not think that the lowest dividend yield in our lifetime, is a sign of overvalued stocks? schrts.co

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