"TA is what I do best".
I'm an amateur TA follower, ever since last October. It was then I decided that a person should look at whatever might help provide clues.
I've been keeping an eye on the MACD of the SPX for all of April. Using that along with the slow sto, I (partially by luck of course) caught the first downdraft of April, and amazingly I actually bought at very close to the intra-day high on April 6th. The MACD hadn't turned decidedly bearish yet at that point, but that was the crucial break which gave me my clue to be on high alert, and begin looking for buy-points for puts:
bigcharts.com
(edit- finally got the right chart up to show the MACD)
The orange line crossed decisively and at a good downward angle following the 4/06 break in the market. And more importantly, the blue line began a slope down. Yet the market continued up, and rallied to a new all-time high. Volume on Wednesday 4/22 reached over 1 billion on the Nasdaq. I had already pulled the trigger twice, buying a put on 4/17, and the main package of ammo on 4/21. But with a very nice double-top in place, complete with high volume in the NYSE and Nasdaq, and internet feeding frenzy, well, the signs were alarming. And the slow stochastic was at about 95 on Wed.
I mentioned the MACD being bearish to someone, but they were a day-trader, and weren't really concerned, as they went home "flat" each day. Anyway, it's interesting to note that TA provided abundant clues that this mkt was due to give more than a passing nod to the technical picture.
DK |
