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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 268.87

+4.6%

Jan 2 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jerome who wrote (41797)	1/30/2001 11:16:12 PM
From: brunn	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Could it be that LRCX and NVLS and KLAC are taking market share from AMAT? Interesting question that only time will answer. Although it is true that AMAT's current quarter will show sequential decrease in revenue while KLAC, LRCX, and NVLS reported sequential growth, AMAT has the disadvantage of reporting one month later and January is definitely a weaker month than October. Also, there has been a change in accounting in terms of how these companies are allowed to state revenue. This change in accounting practices may make comparisons a little difficult for awhile. Also, predicting their performance in the next upturn based on their performance in the downturn may be unreliable. During the last downturn(1998), NVLS and KLAC (especially NVLS) both saw business slow down less than AMAT's in terms of revenue. AMAT's quarterly revenue fell almost 50% from the peak while KLAC fell about 40% and NVLS less than 40%. AMAT's revenue rebounded to prior peak levels 6 months ahead of both of them however. In other words, AMAT lost more business during the downturn but recovered much more quickly. Same thing happened in 1996, AMAT's revenue falling 29% vs. NVLS's 17% and KLAC 20% but AMAT pulling ahead of both in 1997. People buying today are more interested in these companies' performance in the upturn rather than how they are currently doing with the downturn. It does seem that NVLS, KLAC, and LRCX are doing better technically, all of them being considerably higher off their lows than AMAT. I own both AMAT and NVLS by the way. I have been impressed with NVLS' growth over the past year and feel that you probably will do well with all of these stocks longterm.

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