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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 283.30+5.4%2:30 PM EST
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To: John Trader who wrote (41843)2/1/2001 9:25:39 PM
From: Jerome  Read Replies (3) of 70976
 
Rates of recovery for selected semi-equipment stocks.....

In looking at the charts of the following stocks (AMAT, LRCX, NVLS, KLAC) using the SI default chart you can see that things turned real ugly Sept 1 of 2000. These charts are all depressingly similar.

Following is my analysis:(all prices rounded off)

AMAT Closing price today 50 Sept. 1 85
NVLS Closing price today 47 Sept. 1 60
LRCX Closing price today 27 Sept. 1 30
KLAC Closing price today 47 Sept. 1 67

LRCX and NVLS are recovering the quickest. It could be that they have a better outlook, or ar least that investors view it as such.Without getting into a whole lot of technical things like who has the better products or balance sheets, or who is what size gorilla its clear to me that the street is betting more on LRCX and NVLS than they are AMAT.

As to the near term action on AMAT. With no more major announcements of interest rate cuts and not much good news near term, what is there to move the price of AMAT? Not much. If AMAT responds in a similar fashion to other tech stocks prior to earnings it should trade in the range of 48 to 54, until the day prior to earnings and then sell off. The interpretation of the earnings will decide future price action.

Not very scientific, but others are encouraged to post other views.

Regards, Jerome
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