Very tricky market indeed: In times of uncertainty, war and market weakness, sectors like FSAGX become firm. You are quite right, the "role of gold" is subject to huge forces, and we don't know the outcome. However, performance of fsagx suggests that the pro-gold forces will have some success. There are also major derivative exposures in the gold sector, including some financial concerns that have had major exposure to Enron. In my opinion, I think that buy and hold for FSAGX will be better than trading, just as buy and hold worked well for other sectors in the 90's, e.g. fselx. Of course, in a bull market, buy and hold works, as well as trading.
Nat gas was interesting, but the relatively mild weather has caused weakness in this sector.
I am concerned that the CRB index has not strengthened. Most of us would prefer a bias toward some inflation, as opposed to deflation. That commodity index is on the fence right now.
stockcharts.com[m,a]daolyyay[dd][pc50!c200][vc60][iul14!la12,26,9!lh15,5,5!ld20]&pref=G
Regards
Dan |
