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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 270.83

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4189)	7/20/2002 5:48:02 AM
From: Sam Citron	of 95456

Cary, "This economic climate" as referred to in my previous post refers to the bubble aftermath that we are in. It is characterized by a falling stock market which can lead to a "wealth effect in reverse" and a general revulsion for financial assets, a decline or at any rate a slowdown in the growth of IT spending by corporations, and a retrenchment by the consumer, who may curtail his spending on discretionary consumer electronic purchases if he senses a decline in his wealth or income. While it may be true that the stock market has forecast "twelve of the last nine recessions" [Samuelson], the decline we have witnessed in only the last two weeks appears serious enough to me that it could endanger the nascent recovery. Sam

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