In-Stat/MDR Research Highlights
December 15, 2004
Increased Availability of IP End Points Signifying Emergence of Viable VoIP Market
The Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) market is finally emerging, and distinct market segments are taking shape, according to In-Stat/MDR (http://www.instat.com). The high-tech market research firm finds that a wide variety of IP phones and other end point devices are being developed to offer access to current VoIP services and future integrated voice/data/video multi-media applications. As a result, IP phone shipments are expected to experience a 43% growth rate in 2004 alone.
VoIP holds the promise of integrating voice communications with other technologies to create a set of customized and personalized applications. Where today’s services are associated with a connection or a device, VoIP services will be associated with the subscriber, and will be accessible from any device, anywhere, over wireline or wireless access networks.
A multitude of varied IP end points will be created to optimize the multi-media user experience. This trend can already be seen in cellular handsets with integrated camera, video camcorder and television capabilities. For equipment manufacturers, technical feasibility is close to being a certainty. However, market timing is the big unanswered question. IP end points, whether they are standard desktop telephones, Wi-Fi phones, PDAs, or PCs, hold the key to VoIP market development.
In-Stat/MDR has also found the following:
* The migration to IP telephony in enterprise markets is happening today. In 2003, over 5.5 million IP PBX lines were installed worldwide. Hosted services, such as IP Centrex are still in their infancy, with slightly over 20,000 seats deployed in 2003. Over the next few years, IP telephony will gain momentum in small business markets, as well.
* Consumer IP telephony is also growing, but will remain small compared to the PSTN because it is based on long-distance cost savings alone. Best-effort grade VoIP services, such as Packet8 and Free World Dialup, are growing substantially, but still reflect a small fraction of the total market.
* Mobility will be a key factor in VoIP market development. Dual-network, Wi-Fi/cellular services may be the killer application that will drive VoIP into the consumer mass market.
* Except for vertical industry applications (such as healthcare) that are driven by mobility requirements, the corporate market for stand-alone wireless handsets will remain small.
This Market Alert was drawn from the recent In-Stat/MDR report, IP Phones and the Emerging VoIP Markets (#IN0401351CT), which examines the development of enterprise and consumer IP Telephony markets, as well as the future introduction of PSTN-replacement VoIP services from the perspective of IP end points. Five-year forecasts for dedicated IP and SIP phones, softphones, as well as dual-network Wi-Fi/cellular handsets are presented.
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