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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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From: russwinter9/21/2005 4:07:02 PM
   of 110194
 
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Hurricane Rita's threat to Texas-coast refineries swelled overnight and began to take a toll on operations, as the storm strengthened into a dangerous Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds near 135 miles per hour.

BP PLC (BP), Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) and Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) are all cutting back operations at their Texas City refineries in Galveston County, where officials are planning to declare a mandatory evacuation at 6:00 p.m. CDT Wednesday.

Galveston County, which lies between Houston and the Gulf, is home to 4% of the country's refining capacity. BP's 437,000 barrel a day Texas City refinery, which has begun to shut down units, is the country's third largest.

Marathon said it would shut its 72,000 barrel a day Texas City refinery ahead of the storm. Valero was cutting operations at its 210,000 barrel a day Texas City refinery and 90,000 barrel a day Houston refinery to minimum rates to prepare for a possible shutdown. The decision on whether to shut is expected later Wednesday, Valero said.

The National Hurricane Center's forecast track - which has changed little in the last 24 hours - falls about 100 miles southwest of Houston, home to 13% of U.S. refining capacity and the country's energy capital.

While that track might suggest Houston could avoid a direct hit, the storm is big, and a precise track is still difficult to specify this far out. Hurricane force winds extend out 45 miles from the center, the NHC said.

Emergency management officials in Harris County, home to Houston, suggested that residents in low-lying areas evacuate as a precaution against Hurricane Rita, but a voluntary evacuation wasn't called Tuesday, KPRC-TV reported.

"Rita should maintain major hurricane status until landfall," NHC meteorologist Jack Beven wrote in a discussion of his forecast Wednesday morning.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Pasadena Refining and Deer Park Refining, a joint venture of Shell and Petroleos Mexicanos (PEM.YY), also have begun prestorm preparations.

Heavy flooding is a concern. NHC meteorologist Stacy Stewart warned late Tuesday the coast could see a storm surge greater than 20 feet.

A bigger risk for refineries is power outages. Based on the last major storm to damage the Houston electrical grid, some refiners in the area could be without power for at least two weeks if Hurricane Rita hits the city, according to Centerpoint Energy (CNP), Houston's power distribution company.

Alicia, a Category 3 hurricane, slammed into Houston in 1983, knocking out power for two weeks to 750,000 of Centerpoint's 1 million customers at the time, said spokeswoman Leticia Lowe.

"Customers can expect to be out at least two weeks," she said.

REFINERIES POTENTIALLY IN RITA'S PATH
COMPANY LOCATION CRUDE OIL
THROUGHPUT
CAPACITY (B/D)

HOUSTON AREA 2,292,000 (Total)
ExxonMobil Baytown, Tex. 557,000
BP Texas City 437,000
Deer Park Deer Park, Tex. 340,000
Lyondell Citgo Houston 270,000
ConocoPhillps Old Ocean, Tex. 216,000
Valero Texas City 210,000
Astra Pasadena, Tex. 100,000
Valero Houston 90,000
Marathon Texas City 72,000

FAR EASTERN TEXAS 1,013,500 (Total)
ExxonMobil Beaumont, Tex. 348,500
Valero Port Arthur, Tex. 250,000
Motiva Port Arthur, Tex. 235,000
Total Port Arthur, Tex. 180,000

WESTERN LOUISIANA 593,300 (Total)
Citgo Lake Charles, La. 324,300
ConocoPhillips Westlake, La. 239,000
Calcasieu Lake Charles, La. 30
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