That's right - Microsoft will look like a mom and pop operation.
According to the prescient experts at Emerald Research and others, the potential market for these Y2K services is 300 bil. domestically to 600 bil. worldwide. I've seen some estimates go as high as 1 trillion.
Microsoft 1996 revenues = (approx.) $8.5 billion
Let's say that 3 of these Y2K companies end up becoming the dominant players (how about DDIM, VIAS, and ZITL- the 3 stocks I'm shorting).
Let's also assume that, together, they capture 50% of the domestic market only. The majority of their revenues will need to be recognized between this year and 1999, but just for the hell of it, let's give 'em a five year time frame from today:
3 companies recognizing 150 billion in revenues over 5 years.
Averaging over the 5 years means that each one of these companies will see 10 billion in revenues per year.
Needless to say, I'm impressed. Microsoft needed nearly 20 years to grow into a company that only grosses 8 billion. Of course, Microsoft also needed to develop a monopoly on the PC operating system, major applications, and languages - companies like Data Dimensions will do it by expanding 2 digit date fields into 4 digits in some old COBOL code.
Oh, by the way - I neglected to mention one tiny problem.
Most companies intend to solve their Y2K problems with their internal IS staffs (assuming that there are any problems in the first place.) Large vendors, such as IBM, have already become Y2K compliant and they have issued a set of guidelines to their customers on detecting problems and how to go about fixing them. This advice is being dispensed for free.
Don't worry though, Phil - obviously, I'm delusional. |
