The end of the 'age of oil'
Daniele Ganser, ISN Security Watch (Switzerland)
[The first part of the article recapitulates Peak Oil concepts.]
...Oil supply is less secure than it was 50 years ago. But at the same time, global demand for oil has been skyrocketing with no end in sight, considering the growing oil requirements from rapidly expanding economies such as those of China and India. "The Chinese government is well aware of peak oil," said Pang Xiongqi of the China University of Petroleum in Beijing in July 2005. Being the second largest oil consumer behind the US, the Chinese now consume seven Mm/d - a demand they cannot match by their domestic oil production of only 3.5 Mm/d. And, thus, like many other countries, they must import energy.
India, which currently relies on large quantities of dirty, low-grade domestic coal and expensive oil imports, is under similar energy stress. “We are terribly short of our energy supply and we desperately need new sources of energy,” Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh declared while in Washington in July 2005. Half a year later, President Bush announced in New Delhi that he would support India’s nuclear plans aimed at increasing energy production to ease some of the pressure on the demand side of the global oil market.
Today, the need to secure reliable energy supplies is playing a dominant role in the geopolitics of China and its operations in Sudan and other countries, Russia and its support for Iran, the US and its continued military presence in the Middle East, and India, which is planning to build a pipeline from Iran through Pakistan to India. The search for energy is likely to lead to an intensification of great power rivalries over oil resources in the decades to come.
From a historical perspective, the increase in global oil consumption during the last 150 years is remarkable. The first oil was produced in 1859, and throughout the 20th Century, oil supplies have increased annually. ...
The 21st century will be different. After the peak the production of regular oil will fall and never recover. While the 20th century was characterized by increasing oil supplies, the 21st century will be shaped by decreased oil supplies and the end of the age of oil. This will fundamentally change our way of life, explains geologist Colin Campbell, who in 2001 founded the “Association for the Study of Peak Oil” (ASPO) and ever since has warned that all countries must prepare for the global peak.
Dr. Daniele Ganser is a senior researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the ETH in Zurich.
(30 May 2006)
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