We have to deal with the reality as it exists. As mentioned the moderates threw their support to Biden early on and now he is failing. The moderates you mention would be fine, but it is doubtful they can get traction. I see no path for Bloomberg.
The headline news is the huge crowds both Sanders and Warren have, and the small crowds Biden has and the huge amounts of money they are raising. Much more than Biden. And with AOC, et al supporting Bernie he is getting a lot of support from the latino community
Likewise, looking at recent polls, it seems many African Americans are gravitating to Warren. My guess is the African American women are leading that support. They have become a tour de force in politics
Biden had 46% of South Carolina in the beginning, his firewall, but is now down to 30% and Warren is second with 21%, Sanders third with 13%?, and mayor pete with 9%.
I think the moderates would be smart to move to one of the folks you mention, but don't see them doing it.
There is a good chance Warren or Sanders will be nominated and if the moderates won't back them the Republicans could win.
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There is a much different way to frame this. The problem Bloomberg's candidacy represents is that he might lose the liberal base, Or better put, more than a few would stay home. The problem with Warren's and Sanders' candidacy is the inverse. That's the opening for candidates who could both get the full base and keep the other portions of the party enthusiastic.
I don't see anyone yet who could do that. I thought, at first, that Kamela Harris might be able. But her campaign has, at best, floundered. So I don't see any prominent candidate at the moment who fills that role.
I've staked out my interest in Michael Bennett (because he says campaign finance reform as the root danger that needs to be addressed and because he's reasonably pragmatic) and Sherrod Brown (because he's a pragmatic leftist from Ohio). But I don't see a path for either to get the nomination. |
