>soup, I know you've posted some of your signature links, but I really enjoy reading your analyses as well.<
Thank you, Scott. The admiration is mutual.
Regarding my current analysis ...
Some mind-boggling corporate theater over the past month or so.
Jeez, I don't have much new to say, I'm just trying to assimilate it all and sort out the signal from the noise.
Averaged down with some long term LEAPS following AAPL's earnings report and sold off some relatively short-term positions in the high 20's.
My reasons for continued bullishness are:
1) Rhapsody. AAPL's technological edge over MSFT. MSFT's payoff for copying code is but one example.
2) Newton. Return rates on Windows CE are what ... 40%?
3) User Loyalty. OS8 outselling W'95 w/o a Rolling Stones song.
4) Balance sheet. 1.1 billion cash (before MSFT licensing $) So what if if AAPL loses $10-50 million in 4Q?
5) Jobs, new board et al. Stunning.
Concerns:
1) Short-term: Continued negative press resulting in lost sales. Lost sales resulting in deteriorating revenues. Shrinking revenues gaining more bad press. More lost sales. Must break out of spiral.
When do the new ads break wind?
2) Short-term - Forget AAPL, the overall market scares me. I'm 60+% overseas (not that they'll be immune in a sell off.)
3) Long Term: General concerns about the computer industry. Too much uniformity, duplication of efforts, lack of innovation. Too many customers buying way too much computer. Sooner or later somebody's going to wise them up.
I deal with retail customers every day. Today I sold a ten year old Mac SE 4/80 with system 6.0.8 for $199. Customer's using it to run Word 5.0. It boots faster than my 6100. Customer's real happy with it.
IMO, the Newton *is* the consumer computer of the future. If so, how many people are going fork over $2-6k+ for a desk/laptop when they can do the same job with a >$500 (my projected price) portable "comp-man"?
soup |
