Hi Tenchusatsu; Re Samsung and the numbers of RDRAM they are producing and will produce... Of course they don't make reference to earlier predictions of their production.
Kindly check these numbers, and correct:
If Samsung produces 2MM for January to July, and 3MM for August to December, the total number they will produce is 29MM. (They take 10 weeks to make chips, so their 2MM per month figure applies through July.) If their ramp extends to 6MM for November to December, they could make as much as 35 million. With as little as 40% market penetration, the total RDRAM produces is around 88 million.
Given about 3 billion DRAM chips produced per year, (i.e. $30 billion industry with an average chip price of $10), this gives a market penetration for RDRAM, by chip units of around 3%.
Market penetration by price is about 2 to 2.5x higher, due to the higher cost and price of RDRAM, or about 7%.
In other words, even if you count by dollars instead of chips shipped, the estimates of 10% RDRAM penetration for 2000 are dead. In order to make that kind of number, the ramp would have had to have started long before now.
In short: Semico was closest about 2000 RDRAM production. Longs might suspect that they are also right about the future of the memory market.
It might be useful to estimate how much of the above production went into PS2s and how many PCs were then left to be equipped with RDRAM.
-- Carl
P.S. AMD seems like they are planning on selling those Durons pretty cheap. Maybe they want some of that low end market share back... |
