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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 322.51+6.1%Feb 6 9:30 AM EST
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To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (4237)5/3/1997 4:53:00 PM
From: Sam Citron   of 70976
 
Teri,

There is really no such thing as the best time to sell. It all comes down to opportunity costs (what is the best use of your money at a given time). Few of us have the time, temperament, or the tools to make wise short-term decisions. Your 3-year time horizon is ideal, for it affords sufficient time to wash away the temporary random noise. You have identified a great company in a great industry at a great time. Now all you need to do is distract yourself while this cake bakes to perfection.

I wont pretend there aren't other ways to do it. But your method is probably the sanest, and may be the safest as well. Just wait for April 2000 or for the cake to rise to 100. Then look around and see if anything looks better.

But remember that this is a wickedly cyclical industry and that many investors will not make fine qualitative distinctions among companies when THEY think it it is time to head for the hills. Their actions will be more dictated by the fact that AMAT provides them the liquidity to move in and out smoothly, unlike the smaller companies. This exaggerates the volatility of AMAT, making it a kind of industry barometer or proxy.

Every investor has his or her own level of tolerance for risk (volatility). The key is simply to recognize what yours is and to develop systems to ignore or mitigate it, or to use the inherent volatility of the stock to your advantage.

SC
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