Leader of the pack?
Written by
Mary Beth Schneider
mary.beth.schneider@indystar.com
7:04 PM, Apr. 30, 2011|
It's decision time.
With the legislative session now history,
Gov. Mitch Daniels is on the verge of the
biggest decision of his life: whether to run
for the Republican nomination for president
in 2012.
Saturday, hours after the legislature
adjourned, Daniels said he would decide
"within weeks" on a presidential bid.
"I haven't made up my mind, therefore I
don't have a date in mind," he said.
Those close to him say they don't know
what he'll do.
But politicians and pundits -- from
Washington to the key states of Iowa and
New Hampshire -- say there is huge
opportunity for Daniels.
Never mind that he's a mere blip in the
polls, getting about 3 percent of support
among likely Republican voters.
Never mind that, in past years, it already
would have been too late. By now,
candidates usually have campaign staffs,
fundraising operations and frequent-flier
miles to Iowa and New Hampshire.
Daniels, in fact, was rolling the dice when
he put off his decision until the legislature
finished its work. He got lucky.
Despite the bad economy and multiple
domestic and international challenges that
have made President Barack Obama
vulnerable, no Republican has emerged as
the candidate most likely to succeed.
"Ask yourself this question," said Charlie
Cook, editor of the Washington-based
Cook Political Report. "Where's the 800-
pound gorilla? Who's the Ronald Reagan?
Who's the formidable front-runner?
Seriously. Who ought to scare Mitch out of
this race?"
Cook and others say Daniels has what it
takes to successfully launch a campaign: an
enviable political Rolodex that includes c
ontacts from his years working for two
presidents, Ronald Reagan and George W.
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Bush; a business background coupled with
a laid-back political style that makes him
as comfortable in the boardroom as in a
diner; and a tight-fisted, reform-oriented
record from two terms as governor.
Combined, they give Daniels the ability to
raise the money he'll need to build a
political campaign almost overnight.
"Politically speaking, I don't know of any
reason why he shouldn't run," Cook said.
But, he added, there also is the "personal
calculus" every candidate must weigh. He
and others point to the one person whose
opinion might overrule all of the political
math: Cheri Daniels.
Daniels' wife has been a low-profile first
lady of Indiana. The mere fact that she'll be
the keynote speaker at the Indiana GOP's
fundraising dinner May 12 spurred
speculation that she's trying the role of
presidential candidate's wife on for size --
and even that she might use that speech to
announce his plans.
She declined to be interviewed but recently
told The Indianapolis Star that this will be
"a complete family decision."
If he doesn't enter the race, she said,
family "will definitely be a reason. It would
not be the sole reason."
The governor gave a similar assessment
last week, saying his family's opinion is "a
very major factor, but there are a lot of
factors."
Those, though, are political ones, and on
that ground he sounds a lot like a
candidate. He even gave what many
consider his first presidential campaign
speech -- his Feb. 11 address to the
Conservative Political Action Conference.
In it, he laid out what would be the theme
of his campaign: a rhetorical call to arms to
combat "the red menace" of a rising
national deficit.
It's a message political insiders said would
play well in the two states that can launch a
candidate from obscurity to front-runner
status: Iowa, which has the first caucus,
and New Hampshire, which has the first
primary.
Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad said he has
encouraged Daniels to run and thinks
Daniels' "economic message will resonate
with Iowans.
"Certainly a governor with the record Mitch
Daniels has, I think, could be surprisingly
strong," said Branstad, who is staying
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neutral for now.
If Daniels has made one gaffe in the
buildup to a potential presidential bid, it
was his volunteered comment that the next
president will have to call a "truce" on social
issues to focus on fiscal issues.
That may not play well in Iowa, where
about 60 percent of the GOP caucus-goers
in 2008 identified themselves as religious
conservatives.
He may have found the perfect answer to
their doubts Friday: Daniels announced he
would sign into law a bill that defunds
Planned Parenthood and imposes some of
the tightest restrictions on abortion in the
nation.
Richard Schwarm, a former Iowa GOP
chairman who backed Sen. Richard Lugar
in his short-lived run for the presidency in
1996, said Daniels' "truce" comment
"makes him a little more controversial than
he otherwise would have been."
But, he said, most of those people for
whom Daniels' words were a deal-breaker
likely would back another candidate, such
as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee,
anyhow. But for those who place fiscal
issues first, "there is a feeling that he is one
of the stars."
That's even more true in New Hampshire.
"This is a state that is more receptive to
hard discussions about what to do about
the debt and deficit than probably any
other state in the country," said Steve
Duprey, a Republican National committee
member and former state GOP chairman in
New Hampshire.
Also to Daniels' advantage: New
Hampshire's open primary. With Obama
likely unopposed in the Democratic
primary, Duprey -- who is staying neutral
-- expects independents and some
Democrats to vote in the Republican
primary.
"They tend to be less interested in social
issues and more interested in fiscal issues,"
he said.
Ovide Lamontagne, who backed Hoosier
Dan Quayle in his brief run for the
presidency in 1999 and who ran for
governor of New Hampshire in 2010,
points out that although Mitt Romney has a
home there and is well-known from his
days as governor of neighboring
Massachusetts, his campaign has not
caught fire. A recent poll of New
Hampshire voters showed Romney leading
in the state, but with only 27 percent,
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followed by Donald Trump.
Lamontagne said he thinks it's time for
Daniels and any other potential GOP
candidates to get off the sidelines.
"Our nation is in crisis; we need a new
leader, and where are the leaders? They
need to step up now. Time is a'wasting," he
said.
Not everyone sees Daniels as the right
person to step up, though.
Christian Heinze, who follows the
Republican presidential jockeying in the
gop12.com blog he writes for The Hill, said
that while the "conservative intelligentsia,"
including columnists George Will and David
Brooks, swoon over Daniels, he hasn't
shown he can connect with average voters.
"He's just not connecting in these polls,"
Heinze said, calling Daniels a "long shot."
Indiana Democrats say they learned in the
2004 and 2008 gubernatorial campaigns
not to underestimate Daniels.
"I think he's an unusually good politician,
probably one of the best in the Republican
field," said Kip Tew, who worked on
Democratic Gov. Joe Kernan's unsuccessful
2004 campaign against Daniels and
helped Obama become the first Democrat
since 1964 to win Indiana en route to the
White House.
Of the dozen or so Republicans weighing
runs against Obama in 2012, Tew said
Daniels is the most likely to appeal to
independents.
Tew, though, thinks the action that may
help Daniels with the GOP base -- signing
the bill to defund Planned Parenthood --
will sour those independents on him. And
while independents are drawn to a
message of fiscal responsibility, he said,
Democrats will be painting him as "a paper
tiger."
Tew said that the last Indiana budget was
balanced because of Obama's stimulus
program and noted that Daniels tried to
raise taxes in his first term.
The legislature rejected the temporary
income tax hike on higher-earners that
Daniels sought to more quickly balance
Indiana's budget, but Tew expects primary
opponents will use it against Daniels.
Daniels' allies think voters are ready for
something different: straight talk about how
to address a fiscal crisis.
"That's why I'm so hopeful he runs," said Al Hubbard, an Indiana businessman who
worked with Daniels in the Bush White
House and is among his closest associates.
"The other candidates are still talking in
platitudes and generalities that politicians
tend to talk in because they don't want to
offend people."
Even if Daniels lost in the primaries,
Hubbard said, he'd improve the debate.
"He's going to force our candidates to deal
directly with these issues in a very tangible,
fundamental way."
If, that is, Daniels runs. |
