SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 318.63-3.0%3:59 PM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Sam Citron who wrote (42447)2/21/2001 3:18:16 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Sam,

If you ever find a really good one that's accessible, let me know (preferably by PM rather than an open post. :-)).

1. Bookings are nice; but I know of no continuous, timely source for these.
2. CapEx is an indicator of future bookings. Again, no source for the data; and updates to it. At best we get anecdotes.
3. Intuition: based upon an unscientific, non-mathematical integration of the economy, confidence, growth in current uses of chips, growth in new uses for chips, and how well I slept last night. ;^)

I no longer think that capacity utilization is a useful indicator. It completely missed the last upturn and the last downturn.

So we're left with Buy Low, Sell High. Yet psychology convinces many investors to sell at the bottom because every stock is going to be priced at zero while also encouraging them to buy at the high because this sector isn't cyclical any more. Right now I think we're much closer to the Buy Low side of the equation.

Ian.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News