Chic,
I'm not sure who you were quoting in your post, but the facts are flat out wrong in several key areas.
<< Then, there is leverage today that was unheard of in 1929, like using credit cards to get money to buy stock, home equity loans >>
Wrong, wrong, wrong. Leverage was unbelievably higher back in 1929. You could buy stocks on margin up to 10 times the equity in your account. Today it's only twice your equity. The 1929 crash wiped out a large number of investors including some of the largest investors due to their high margin use. Much higher than today.
<< The market just has to fall more to wring out the money that has to come out, once the amount of capital to support the markets has become insufficient. >>
There's $2 trillion sitting on the sidelines. The baby boomers are in their peak years of earnings. Capital supply is not an issue.
<< Unlike Japan, we are in debt to our ears and there is no mathamatical solution. >>
The government of Japan has massive debt. The US government has debt, but is now running a budget surplus and can pay off the debt in a reasonable amount of time. Why pay off the debt anyway? My only debt is the mortgage on my house, but it's quite normal to run this debt for a large part of your lifetime. I could pay it off now, but prefer to keep the tax deduction and use the funds for investing. Debt is how the US got to where it is today. Investing in the future has paid off. If the US never took on debt, we'd be as backward as the 3rd world nations.
<< It will shatter because it always has >>
Huh? When has the US market shattered. It's average return is over 10% per year for the past 200 years or so. Yes there have been dips, but if you held long term you made money. If you bought during bear markets (like we have the opportunity to do now) you made much MORE than 10% per year. The disaster scenario promised in your post can only occur if we have another great depression. Do you really think we're headed towards a great depression? I think you're nuts if you believe this.
Mostly my opinion, but so is the BS that you posted.
Edit: I just saw in your profile that you are 24 years old. Now your posts make more sense.
Dave |
