Blogger's Summary of '09 Forecasts
<< Forecasting 2009
time Posted January 12, 2009
Traditional forecastors
Merril Lynch favors: Bonds, Japan, US Infrastructure, Defense stocks
UBS favors: Bonds, Defensive sector, Healthcare, Consumer staples, Telecoms
Gary Shilling: Sell homebuiders, stocks, bonds. Sell your home because real estate is going lower. Sell commodities. Buy the dollar and bonds.
Fortune’s top 10 promising stocks: MO DELL NLY DVN DO FLR JNJ MHS PFE POT
Smart Money Top Stocks: DUK JNJ MSFT SO AAPL CSCO XRAY MHS NLY GE LOW RIG
Forbes: DGIT ZLC SPG CSCO NOV PH CAT LVS
Consensus projections: not many strong convictions either way, but…
40% positive
60% bearish
Visionary forecastors
Gerald Celente:
* Collapse of 09' - retail (more big chains will close)
* Commercial real estate collapse
* Anti-government sentiment begins
* Greatest Depression (Fed finangling, Gov’t intervention, and Wall St.’s gambling)
* Decline & fall of American Empire
* Crime/Self protection will rise
* 2nd American Revolution
* Obamarama - wildly marketed as political new age. This is more slight of hand.
* Economic slimfast - spending/food diet
* Whole health healing
* Little people squeeze
* Regenerative medicine
* College crash
Saxo Bank (out of the box)
* Revolution in Iran
* Crude oil could touch $25/barrel
* S&P could fall to 500
* Italy pull out of European Union
* China @ 0% growth
* Asian currencies peg to Chinese currency
Byron Wein
* S&P rises to 1200
* Gold rises to $1200/ounce
* Oil to $80/barrel
* Dollar falls
* China growth rates exceed 7%
* NY state threatens bankruptcy
* Housing starts reach bottom in 3rd qrt
* Savings rate fails to improve beyond 3%
* Barack Obama slows plans for troop withdrawal
Karl Denninger
* Economy will not recover in 09'
* Unemployment at 15%
* Deflation is major theme
* Housing prices continue to decline
* Fed fails to fix economy
* S&P could touch 500 in next 12-24 months, maybe crash to 300. Dow at 3000.
* Metals won’t be safe haven
* Dollar will not collapse
* Commercial real estate will collapse
* States will default, possibly starting with California
Stephanie Pomboy
* Early stages of economic downturn
* Gold is favorite investment
* Emerging markets should fair well>>
Source:
zentrader.ca
Woody |
