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Motorola and Misguided Media Hype
By Chris Rugaber
While the Fool advises against obsessively watching the market on a daily basis since it can lead to overreaction and unproductive short-term trading, doing so can also provide amusing illustrations of how silly the market can sometimes be.
Take the recent fortunes of Motorola (NYSE: MOT - news) for example. Yesterday, the company traded up about 4.6% to $36 5/8 on heavy volume following the company's generally upbeat analyst meeting on Tuesday. Today, the second-largest maker of mobile phones traded down on heavy volume -- by almost 8.5% at one point -- after CNBC and Bloomberg reported that the company was reducing its handset production targets, from 100 million to about 85 million.
The reports were based on a Lehman Brothers analyst's note this morning that said Motorola had discussed its reduced goals with its suppliers last night. Presumably because this reduction in targets wasn't mentioned in the company's annual analyst meeting, the market reacted strongly.
Whoops
Unfortunately for those who sold the stock, the media reports now appear to be wrong. Late this morning, Motorola denied that it has changed its unit production goals and maintained that it didn't talk to its suppliers last night. A company spokesman said that while its current estimate for year 2000 handset production is, in fact, 85 million, that has been the case for "quite some time." A Merrill Lynch analyst agreed, telling Bloomberg that the company has forecasted 85 million in mobile phone sales "since at least May."
The whole brouhaha provides an opportunity to reflect on a couple of investing basics:
Don't sell in a panic. In today's information maelstrom, investors need to take time to sort things out. Initial reports suggested that Motorola may have been changing its mobile phone production strategy, but provided few details. It turned out that the analyst's note that sparked this morning's hysteria did not actually make that big of a deal about Motorola's handset numbers, and did not change the firm's target price for the company. Instead, media reports of the note seem to have exaggerated its import.
Relax, and do your own research. This is an old chestnut here at the Fool, but it is particularly relevant in this case. A replay of Motorola's annual presentation to analysts is available over the Web, and while it is of course uniformly optimistic about the company's prospects, it's also a pretty in-depth look at Motorola's plans for all its product lines. This is the kind of information that would not have been available to individual investors a few years ago; Motorola shareholders, and those thinking about joining them, ought to take advantage of it. |
