RE: NTL
i have been spending some more time with this and warming a bit, but i think in addition to your list there is a question as to what level of dividends will be distributed by TEO. they went down in 2011 from 2010. the report assumes they increase significantly from here. it could happen. but it was reduced in 2011 in peso terms, and as you point out there is a devaluation risk. they do build in an assumption for this into the report, but i am not convinced they have fully reflected the add-on effects of devaluation and inflation. i think their dividend projection is optimistic.
that said, it can still be a good value even if dividends come in a bit lower than what they project.
one other point...both TEO and NTL are lower than when the report came out. is there a flaw in the basic analysis? the U.S. market is certainly higher than when the report came out, and they slapped a buy on this suggesting it should do better (presumably) than names that did not have a buy on them. i do like the potential catalyst of starting dividends, and trying to decide how i wish to size this. i think some of the discount has already disappeared, so i doubt i chase it very far.
a positive is the list of risks is for the most part a diversification from the other risks in my portfolio (aside from YPF of course, and even there the differences in degree make them only partially correlated.
thanks for pointing this one out, Batman.
on an unrelated note, watching the traffic between this board and IV and trying to handicap where things shake out, i think IV has retaken the lead in post count, but IV seems less focused on stocks and more on gold and real estate. maybe IV will evolve to a broader, more macro board and this one more stock specific? too soon to tell. may just be a random variation. SI does seem to have a few more generalist boards that may prove to be interesting. if nothing else, the introduction to this board has given me an additional source or two for ideas, and that is always a good thing. i sometimes come across a new generalist board on IV that seems interesting initially, but i have not found any beyond BAK that had staying power in a general manner. i do have a few name-specific boards over there i will continue to track. |
