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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
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From: Donald Wennerstrom1/15/2009 12:33:40 PM
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Fearless IC predictions from Wall Street

Mark LaPedus

(01/15/2009 12:48 AM EST)

HALF MOON BAY, Calif. -- At the Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) here, Wall Street gave its fearless predictions for the IC and fab-tool sectors in 2009.
Here's what four analysts said at the event:

Tim Arcuri, analyst at Citigroup Investment Research:

IC forecast for 2009: Down 20 percent. IC unit forecast: Down 20 percent. GDP will bottom out in Q2 '09.

"We will finally see M&A activity in (the semiconductor equipment) space.''

First wave of fab-tool orders will come from memory makers.

Jim Covello, analyst from Goldman Sachs:

IC forecast for 2009: Down 10-15 percent; Capital spending: Down 50 percent.

''Increased commodity memory pricing, driven by supply cuts.''

Orders will bottom in Q1 of 2009, with flattish growth in Q2. ''Full order recovery (for equipment) in 2010.'' First wave of fab-tool orders will come from memory makers.

Brett Hodess, analyst with Merrill Lynch:

IC forecast for 2009: Down 22 percent; IC units: Down 13 percent; Capital Spending: Down 33 percent, possibly as low as 40 percent. GDP will hit the bottom Q4 of 2009.

''The change in technology is still going on.''

First wave of fab-tool orders will come from logic makers, namely Intel.

Matthew Petkun, an analyst with D.A Davidson & Co.:

Q2 is the bottom for stocks. ''Stocks have already felt much of the pain. The downturn will be longer than most.''

First wave of fab-tool orders will come from memory makers.

eetimes.com
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