The peace will hold for the time being. Indeed, we may expect a verifiable lid on cross border infiltration to lead to a meeting between Mr Vajpayee and General Musharraf in Tashkent next month, unless rogue elements in Kashmir succeed in derailing the Musharraf initiative. Whether or not the two leaders will be able to start the Agra process again, however, is a difficult question. There are bound to be many a slip between the cup and the lip.
Editorial Daily Times..
The view from liberals..General Pervez Musha-rraf’s speech was aimed at three targets: the home front, the international community, and India. His objective was to beat a tactical retreat behind the scenes on the issue of LoC cross border infiltration while publicly appearing to move ahead strategically on the certainty of free and fair general elections at home and a peace dialogue with India.
He was conciliatory with respect to the demand of the international community to stop cross-border infiltration – he reiterated his commitment not once but four times and not just in Urdu but in English too because he knows that, far from defying the international community, he cannot do without its political and economic support.
He was hard on India, accusing it of provoking war hysteria — and going so far as to refer to the terrorism of the supporters of India’s ruling party on Muslims, Christians and the backward classes of that country – because he knows that this will go down well at home and deflect potential criticism that he has succumbed to pressure from the old arch-enemy. Similarly, he was passionate in his defense of the cause of Kashmir because he doesn’t want the Kashmiris to be demoralized by his policy shift on material support to their cause. And he wanted to sound confident all round so that his words are taken seriously – that is why he announced that the general elections will be held on October 7-11 and that they will be transparently free and fair.
It was a hard act to follow after he began his speech by saying that “Pakistan was going through a most grim and difficult time which could amount to a historic turn in its affairs and the decisions taken at this juncture could have far reaching repercussions domestically and internationally.” In the event, it seems he shied away at the last moment from explaining which of his decisions could have far reaching implications.
The decision to hold elections on October 7 is hardly epoch shattering. He had already said countless times that the general elections would be held before October 8. The half-hearted admission that perhaps some supporters of the government were not above board in the referendum was neither here nor there, considering his insistence that everyone – all women, all workers, all chambers of commerce, all minorities – were for him.
The real decision that will have far reaching consequences is the one he made some days ago and communicated secretly to the USA behind the scenes – that he will put a lid on the training camps in Azad Kashmir – while only indirectly alluding to it in his speech: there will be no export of terrorism and militancy and infiltration across the LoC from Pakistani soil. It is this decision that could prove critical not just from General Pervez Musharraf’s personal point of view but also from the point of view of the Pakistan army and the nation.
Could he have said more to appease India? No, that would be have been suicidal from the point of view of his domestic constituencies. But was there a need to attack India’s human rights record so pointedly? Yes, there probably was, because it was necessary to cover his secret retreat in reality by sounding overly aggressive in public. There was also an urgent need to tell the international community that India should not be allowed to walk over everyone and that Pakistan expected a definite quid pro quo for its concession on infiltration across the LoC. He spelt this out as de-escalation along the border with Pakistan, reduction of Indian state terrorism in Kashmir and initiation of the process of dialogue with a view to finding a permanent solution to the issue of Kashmir.
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