Thanks everyone for all your good replies to my question on 4G and how it relates to Qualcom. On the question of timing I am pasting the rest of the article I read which talks about timing and 3G versus 4G. Rich
Wireless LAN ``already removes a lot of the immediate applications for 3G,'' says Brett Stewart, founder and president of Wayport, which builds wireless-data networks for airports. ``Someone who's using a laptop and gets 6 megabits per second -- why would they want 3G?'' argues Pontus Bergdahl, CEO of Sweden's Columbitech, which develops the software needed to connect LANs with the main networks.
If carriers do sit 3G out, that would hurt the wireless infrastructure market. Technology consultancy Adventis estimates carriers will spend $75 billion in the next few years on 3G equipment. But that number is beginning to look wildly optimistic. For their part, mobile telcos are worried that 3G services might fail to bring in expected revenues. And many carriers still staggering under the debts they assumed to win spectrum auctions now find capital markets closed and no way to fund 3G buildouts.
HYBRID SOLUTIONS. For these reasons, some analysts believe 4G might even arrive at the same time as 3G, which will likely be fully deployed in North America only by 2005 -- the same year 4G is expected to debut. And companies that leap-frog 3G might be spending less at the end. How much less? According to analysts from Japanese investment bank Nomura Securities, covering all of Germany with wireless LANs would cost as much as the amount six wireless operators paid for their 3G licenses there last August.
But enough companies have sunk money into 3G to ensure it won't be a total washout. ``It's still the lowest-risk strategy to migrate [to newer services] through 3G,'' says Adventis analyst Andrew Cole. Carriers wedded to 3G will likely combine LANs and Bluetooth with their new networks as well, he adds. That's the plan for Sweden's Telia, which operates wireless networks using different technologies in 30 countries and plans to use both 3G and wireless LANs. Nokia Mobile Vice-President for Systems Research Heikki Ahava calls the 3G and 4G technologies ``complementary. They all have their own role.''
Indeed, many operators and infrastructure vendors say they don't feel threatened by 4G. Wireless LANs and Bluetooth work only in limited ranges and won't allow for the mobility offered by 3G, says Hakan Eriksson, vice-president for research at Ericsson, which has the most 3G-infrastructure contracts of any company in the world.
REFUND, PLEASE. Overlapping wireless LANs could also cause interference and low quality of service, says Columbitech's Bergdahl. And 4G proponents have yet to work out standards to allow users to switch back and forth from wireless LANs back to traditional cell networks. ``There are sufficiently large problems with 3G that it's unrealistic to talk of 4G,'' says Forrester Research analyst Charles Golvin.
But 4G believers counter that such problems can be overcome. And 3G looks wobblier each month. Large carriers, including British Telecommunications and NTT DoCoMo, Japan's largest wireless provider, have postponed 3G offerings after technical glitches. Several European 3G auctions have collapsed. And some European operators are now asking governments to refund the money spent to buy licenses to the 3G wireless spectrum, a dramatic about-face.
All this has made companies building technologies for 4G networks hot plays, according to John Roy of Merrill Lynch -- while companies that bet heavily on 3G, including Ericsson, Deutsche Telecom, and Vodafone, ``are in a tough spot,'' Roy says. That could be an understatement. Some of these players must be wondering if they poured that $100 billion into a wireless black hole.
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