re: SEMI bookings 12/08:
Didn't quite take out the cycle low (so far) of 650m$ in September. This buying level has zero capacity buys in it. It's all tech upgrades, by those semis that aren't desperately conserving cash. The next few months might see bookings a bit lower, but the big plunge is done. There's no fat or meat left on this carcase, just bare bones, with the vultures asking each other, "Want some KLIC below $2?".
Now we see how broad the middle part of the "U" is. If the Taiwan or S. Korea governments do for their chip companies, what the U.S. is doing for our car industry (throw cash at money-losing companies, to preserve jobs), those semis might start doing tech buys later in 2009, and the bookings number could creep up.
A V-shaped recovery in bookings is unrealistic. Yet, when bookings stop going down, there has repeatedly been a "false dawn" in the stock prices: this happened in mid-2001, late-2002, and again in early 2008. If this rally happens, I'll be selling it hard. |
