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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum
WDC 176.34-5.8%Dec 12 9:30 AM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (4285)8/31/1998 3:44:00 PM
From: La Traguhs  Read Replies (1) of 9256
 
Gottfried,

Let me get into this "bottom" talk. While I 'm not trying to predict when it will be, I am trying to come close so that I can feel at least "comfortable" about getting back into the HDD sector.

We should all remember that the big three have already stated in their last cc's that results will be flat to slightly down for the next two quarters.

With that in mind, let's assume (as I do) that the DOW will drift down to or very near 7500 by the next financial cc period (mid October). Now also assume (also as I do) that about that time it will also dawn on most that we truely are in a "bear market" overall (not just HDDs). This will cause a big dent in the demand side of the traditional December seasonal pull for HDDs.

Now given I could be right on just one (well maybe I'd need two) of these opinions, what do you think the market will do to the HDD stock prices after mid October. So while I think we'll see some upticks in the HDD stocks as the market trys to prove us "bear market believers" wrong this quarter, from mid October on, we could (I think we will) see HDD prices hit new lows.

I just don't see anything on the horizon that will cause the demand needed to bring back the HDD market we experienced in the past two years when the HHD stocks followed a great PC demand.

These remarks reflect the desktop (largest unit volumes) HDD segment. My opinion changes significantly if we talk just about the enterprise market (its growing as Stitch points out).

Now if only we had a HDD company that only produced HDD for that segment, I'd be on them like flys on - well you know how it goes.

Regards
LT
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