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Strategies & Market Trends : BAK - Investing

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To: thatsnotluck who wrote (427)

3/3/2012 3:59:04 PM

From: Covenant

1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 3249

Re: NTL

i think their dividend projection is optimistic.

The projection assumes cash flow goes to dividends and is not reinvested in the business. Growth continues without significant reinvestment.

It is a sell side report. Optimism is a given. One underlying assumption is there will be no significant expansion Capex like that funded by the debt TEO has been paying off, only a continuing level of Capex best termed maintenance. I'm not so sure that is a good assumption with the growth of smart phones.

Whether the projection is right or wrong doesn't make much difference to the investment thesis. It is quite clear both TEO and NTL represent good values at current prices. The investment decision depends on how comfortable one is with the macro risks.

one other point...both TEO and NTL are lower than when the report came out. is there a flaw in the basic analysis?

Argentina macro risks have been presenting themselves more visibly ever since the election, with the attack on YPF acting as a sharp reminder to investors in any company operating in the country. TEO's price has dropped since every analyst put out their opinion.

Overall Rating: BUY Rating Trend: Avg. $ Target: $25.93 (+38.7%)
Date Firm Type Rating PT Start Price End Price % Chg. Details

1/12/2012	Morgan Stanley	New Coverage	Overweight	24.00	20.12	18.70	-7.06%	Details
9/16/2011	Lazard Capital	New Coverage	Buy	31.00	20.41	18.70	-8.38%	Details
3/15/2011	Standpoint Research	Upgrade	Accumulate	N/A	23.37	18.70	-19.98%	Details
12/6/2010	Barclays	New Coverage	Overweight	N/A	24.63	18.70	-24.08%	Details

watching the traffic between this board and IV and trying to handicap where things shake out, i think IV has retaken the lead in post count

IV's format is more conducive to conversation. You can only see one level of replies on SI and there is no subject to indicate which posts are related.

Meanwhile, SI is fast and always works. IV has spotty performance. There is no reason to believe either site's reliability will change in the short term.

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