Looking at the VXN daily chart, the MACD turned up (bad) after hitting a rising support line. The VXN does not appear to be reversing as in previous lows (Feb, Sept.).
The VXN has confirmed every false rally since May (that's as far back as I've noticed), and it appears to be calling this rally bogus also.
The VXN needs to drop below 64 to confirm a reversal. The VXN RSI is still above 50, and there is a possible bull flag forming at the top pointing even higher. The upper rising resistance and the upper BB point to 80 sometime down the road.
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
Anyway, this is one thing that may be pointing to a continuation of the uptrend off the Wednesday lows through Wednesday for end of month window dresssing before a reversal back to re-test the lows again.
The NDX daily chart is looking better, and it printed a hammer on Friday:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
Stochastics are turning up, but MACD is turning down, not a good sign. The ADX is still dropping and the trend strength is getting above 40 on the ADX. This is one of the reason I'm leaning towards a window dressing high followed by a drop to re-test the lows again. Above 910 NDX should be a buy until around 940-950. As long as the NDX is above around 890 or so, it is technically in an uptrend off the lows. |
