Sal, I agree with you entirely. The 486DX is already PC Lite, and
is getting lighter and lighter all the time. Intel's strategy is to
be first with the next-generation chip and then aggressively discount
last year's chip. Falling prices for 486 chips does not make Intel
unhappy -- they make lots of money on the cutting edge chip, and
tremendous pressure is placed on their competitors who are one to two
steps behind. For this reason, I personally would not choose Advanced
Micro Devices for an investment. The "anal_ysts" often confuse cause
and effect when they agonize about chips as commodities and the
falling price of chips. The falling price of chips is part of Intel's
strategy and an important (and welcome) part of the silicon
communication/computing revolution.
I also doubt the viability of the PC Lite concept from a mass
psychology viewpoint. This is American --- home of fiercely
independent individualists. People want that 133MHz Pentium ON THEIR
DESK, just like they want their car in the driveway in case they need
to zip over to Computer City for megabytes or to the grocery store for
bread and milk. How many people do you see exchanging their Lexus for
a public bus schedule (not that I have anything against riding the
bus)?
I think Intel is a fantastic company --- it is one of my favorite
investments. I am so grateful to Whittington and Kurlak, et al. for
contributing to the current buying opportunity. If the stock should
drop 20 or 30 points more, I would still remain grateful, and would
borrow to the limit to buy more Intel. What I find particularly
distasteful about people like Whittington and Kurlak is that they are
not being honest about their motivations and reasons for upgrading or
downgrading (and thus you cannot trust them to help you figure out the
fundamentals)--- they can't publicly admit that they're selling to
lock in profits and make their year-end numbers look good, or that a
small, priveleged group of individuals might have insider knowledge
and benefit from the frenzy produced by their pronouncements; instead,
they find some flimsy excuse to justify their actions. It is
difficult sometimes, but when the fundamentals are all there for
a company, like Intel, one must resist the panic that the short term
traders promote. Pity the silicon bears; we shouldn't begrudge them
a few small bones thrown to them by the likes of Whittington and
Kurlak.
Incidentally, I thought all you Intel fans would appreciate the
following: a recent article listed the holdings of George Soros.
Out of 42, Intel was second ($259 million), Chiron was 12th ($96
million) and Amgen was 35th ($34 million).
The largest disk drives pale in comparison to the data storage on one
chromosome, but not unexpectedly, computing power is one of the most
critical elements fueling the rapidly progressing characterization
of ALL normal human genes and how defects and mistakes in the primary
sequence of these genes lead to malignancies, autoimmune diseases,
degenerative disorders and congenital defects. |
