MuchoMan, can I take a stab at dosey-do?
what I see is a waiting pattern.. TA folks might have a better name like a "bullish flag".. during this time we trade in a relatively tight range, with breakouts not happening.. why should they? we need more information.. we also need more time for the mindless lemmings to finish their ritualistic jump off the bus.. no more earthquakes please
it is like technicals are saying "ok, what is it gonna be?" to the fundamental gods.. this is why I frequently defer to fundys
we await the Talking Greenhead.. damaging data today from prices paid NAPM, with strong mfg activity, showing higher metals-oil-materials prices passing along
Greenspinner has been speaking in more basic english tones in recent months, after many urgings from Congress (who pay his salary)
the Fed has not been leading the bond market, but rather following it.. the shorter maturity credit market is doing ok.. intermediate ok too.. longbond is hanging in there.. bonds came off their low today with yield staying below 6.15%.. I do NOT think the Fed will raise rates.. they did not in August, and will not now
the FedFunds future contract yday had it at 20% chance of a hike, a very handy meter
if the Fed hikes now, then expect a rattling day or two, followed by a big rally as watchers conclude no more hikes in the next few months.. earnings will make us forget quickly the hike anyway
the technical waiting pattern has a side benefit.. THE LONGER THE PATTERN, THE LARGER THE LEAP UPWARDS.. this is where I have had trouble myself.. in waiting patiently, sticking with my positions (stock and calls)
let them dosey-do a few times.. after dancing arm in arm, eventually they will benefit from the building chemistry, from the natural forces, and proceed to make some explosions upstairs in the bedroom
I will never apologize for buffoonery or freedom with metaphors
/ jim willie |
