Charles, I concur completely. -
".. I have been watching markets a long time, and I have never seen anything as insane as this. It will end in panic, but who knows when."
The present market defies description (and gravity), and *may* be in the early stages of a blow-off top. Trading volume will tell us when that time has come. When *THE TOP* occurs, trading volume will surpass the record levels set this past October, and that should prove to be the confirming clue as to *when*. Many "investors" will be in for the financial shock of their relatively short lives. Their first real example of a true market correction should prove to be a doozy. I think Asia lit the fuse, I just don't know how long the damn thing is.
" I just hope it doesn't take the world economy down with it, but it probably will."
I feel the key here is the banks, both domestic and international. If Chase, JPM, Citicorp, et.al. prove vulnerable, the above scenario is not out of the question, but the current strength of the economy will most-likely pad the fall somewhat. It should still prove to be a very bitter pill to swallow however. Today I sold a very healthy portion of mutual funds, LAFFX, MITTX, which have been in my family for more than 45 years, solely to *preserve capital*. I have kept 10% to play with, but the prudent money should begin seeking safety shortly. Anyone fully-invested over the near-term seems IMO to be accepting too high a degree of risk level, commensurate with the future expected gains they are seeking. The risk to reward ratio just ain't there.
Just another old man's opinion,
MT |
