Tom, I hate to say it, but so far Dan Niles has been right on MU. The bears were calling for single digits, and Dan called for $40 if I recall, which we got, and had MU ranked as a strong buy. Since that time, MU has been a stellar performer, like it or not. I for one do not think his $200 target for 2001 is unrealistic. In a shortage MU will make a lot of money. And of course at that point the projections for the future will be unrealistic, and the price will be even more unrealistic.
MU went above $90 during the last shortage, and they are much bigger now. Why is $200 unrealistic? Furthermore, his timing of 2001 sounds about right to me, too. New fabs take a couple years to bring on line, though one that has been built, but not yet equipped can be brought online faster. By 2001 I presume that the current fab closures assure a shortage. MU will bring Lehi up, and will be producing record profits. Others will have new fabs under construction, but not open. The stock will hit $200 or so, and then we can begin another down cycle.
I know that you believe that production will exceed demand for the forseeable future, and that may happen. Adjust your glasses slightly and make a few slightly different assumptions, and see if you don't agree that a $200 target is not impossible.
Carl
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