Wafer capacity appears to be slowing as fab shells fill up
New report shows plant utilization extremely high at 95.5% in Q2
By J. Robert Lineback
Semiconductor Business News
(08/25/00, 05:00:39 PM EDT)
SAN JOSE -- Worldwide wafer fab capacity nudged up 3.3% in the second quarter of 2000 compared to unit volumes in the first three months this year. New figures released by the Semiconductor Industry Association here show wafer-processing volumes increasing at a much slower rate than the first quarter's growth of nearly 10%.
In addition, wafer fabs are tapped out, running at record levels of utilization, according to the report.
"Quite a few of the [empty] fab shells have been outfitted and expanded," observed chip analyst Bill McClean, president of IC Insights Inc. in Scottsdale, Ariz. "Capacity utilization is still high--at greater than 95%. And, I think it will be more difficult to expand capacity, and we should see IC pricing starting to climb."
The new Semiconductor International Capacity Statistics (SICAS) report, released this week by the SIA, shows IC capacity utilization for MOS wafer fabs at an astonishing level of 95.5% in the second quarter vs. 95.2% in the first quarter. A year ago, MOS integrated circuit fabs were running at 89.9% of the installed capacity, according to the SICAS report. In the third quarter of 1998, MOS integrated circuit fabs were running at just 81.6% utilization--the low point in the last industry downturn.
Perhaps more telling than the unprecedented high levels of fab capacity utilization is the slowing of growth in wafer-processing volumes in the second quarter. McClean and other industry analysts believe the chip industry has been able to keep pace with growing demand for ICs by equipping existing plant buildings and upgrading older facilities. But that now appears to be ending and the likelihood of chip shortages is looming.
The new capacity report shows total IC fab volumes reaching 2.034 million six-inch equivalent wafer starts per week in the second quarter--an increase of 3.3% from the first quarter's 1.969 million. In the first quarter, IC wafer starts grew 9.6% from 1.796 million in the fourth quarter 1999.
The growth in MOS fabs producing ICs with feature sizes below 0.3 micron grew 7.7% to 623,100 wafer starts per week in the second quarter vs. 578,600 in the first quarter this year. In this segment, wafer capacity surged by 25% in the first quarter over fourth quarter 1999.
Total MOS integrated circuit fab capacity grew 3.5% to 1.816 million six-inch wafer equivalents from 1.755 million in the first quarter. The first quarter's total capacity in MOS ICs was 10.7% higher than 1.586 million in the fourth quarter of 1999, according to the SICAS report.
Bipolar wafer processing capacity grew 1.8% to 313,600 five-inch equivalent wafers in the second quarter from 308,100 in the first quarter of this year, the new report said. The bipolar capacity growth rate was about even with the first quarter. |
