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Afghan Assembly Is Postponed for A Second Time
Logistics Blamed for Delay on Constitution
By Pamela Constable
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, December 13, 2003; Page A12
KABUL, Afghanistan, Dec. 12 -- The opening of a national constitutional assembly has been postponed again as threats of violence from armed Islamic groups increase and concerns spread that the meeting could produce a paralyzing split between conservatives and reformers that would damage chances for successful presidential elections next year.
Officials said Friday night that the assembly, which was to begin on Saturday, has been delayed until Sunday only because some of the 500 delegates have had difficulty reaching Kabul from remote provinces. But security has been extremely tight as participants gather for the meeting, known as a loya jirga. Hundreds of Afghan and foreign troops are guarding the site at Kabul's Polytechnic Institute.
The loya jirga is being convened to debate and ratify a new constitution -- the first since 1964, when Afghanistan was ruled by a monarch and had not yet experienced Soviet occupation, civil war and repressive Islamic rule. The assembly is a critical step in the country's U.N.-mandated transition to democratic rule and will almost certainly feature fiery discussions among delegates from diverse backgrounds, including urban women's activists, conservative tribal elders and former Islamic militia commanders.
One concern among outside observers is that the assembly may be hijacked by Islamic fundamentalists. More than two-thirds of the 344 elected male delegates are reportedly associated with factions that want the new constitution to emphasize strict Islamic law and provide for a prime minister who can act as a counterweight to a powerful president.
Moreover, it is not yet clear who will chair the assembly or how that person -- who can set and control much of its agenda -- will be chosen. President Hamid Karzai reportedly wants to name a moderate former Afghan president, but religious conservatives are pushing for a direct election by the delegates, which could put someone from their ranks -- probably Islamic factional leader Abdul Rasool Sayyaf -- in the powerful post.
"We are hoping to see a strong chair who can prevent the loya jirga from being dominated from any specific group, but we still don't know what the rules will be," said Nader Naderi, spokesman for the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission. "That issue alone will make a major difference in what happens."
Lakhdar Brahimi, the U.N. special representative to Afghanistan, predicted this week that the assembly would be marked by "difficult debate." Brahimi said in a report to Afghan officials this week that unless the government becomes more representative and balanced, the political steps taken at the loya jirga will be "unlikely to produce a stable, legitimate political order" and could instead institutionalize a "fractured, unstable political order" dominated by factional and ethnic interests.
The loya jirga will bring together 500 delegates -- 344 men elected from all of Afghanistan's 32 provinces, 64 women elected by other women, 50 people chosen by Karzai and 42 chosen to represent various minority groups. The great majority are from conservative rural areas.
The draft constitution before the assembly, as proposed by Karzai's administration, calls for a strong president and weaker parliament, with no prime minister. Karzai, 46, an ethnic Pashtun who is the country's interim leader, has said he will run for president unless the loya jirga restores the position of prime minister. Many analysts say he could win but would face extreme difficulties governing if challenged by a powerful parliamentary leader.
"In countries where there are no strong institutions, in countries where there are remnants of a conflict still there, we need a system that will run with one centrality, not many centers of power," Karzai said this week.
His opponents, largely members of conservative Islamic factions that dominate many rural regions, are expected not only to lead efforts to add the prime minister's position but also to call for changes that specifically enshrine strict Islamic law precepts, known as sharia, in the charter. The current draft, which was the subject of much negotiation among Islamic moderates and conservatives, merely says that no Afghan law shall contradict the principles of Islam.
During elections this month to select delegates to the assembly, the most common demand in many regions was for a political system that is guided by and subordinate to Islamic law. This notion is anathema to reformers in Karzai's administration, as well as to Western governments and human rights groups who see imposition of sharia as a hindrance to Afghanistan's political and economic modernization.
If Islamic groups are hoping to sabotage Karzai and his version of democracy, they are using subtle tactics. On the issue of who should chair the assembly, for example, they have argued for an open and democratic election among delegates. And while the government and its foreign advisers have proposed dividing the assembly into working groups on various issues, presumably headed by the more educated members, opponents have branded this plan undemocratic and called for open discussion on every issue.
Meanwhile, officials are hoping that the intensive security precautions will prevent any harm coming to the delegates, who will be fed and housed at a cost to the United Nations and international aid groups of $50,000 per day.
In recent days, spokesmen for the revived Taliban movement, which has carried out numerous attacks in southeastern Afghanistan, have also threatened members of the loya jirga, while calling the meeting a "charade" promoted by Western interests.
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