The News reports..Commanders in the American military's most elite Special Operations unit are contending that their troops should be freed from the fruitless hunt in Afghanistan for Osama bin Laden, military and intelligence officials say. Some senior officers in the Joint Special Operations Command have concluded that bin Laden, the leader of Al Qaeda, was probably killed in the American bombing raid at Tora Bora cave complex last December, officials said.
Yet the Special Operations leaders lack hard forensic evidence that would prove bin Laden is dead, and acknowledge their conclusions are deductive, drawn partly from the lack of recent confirmed sightings or radio intercepts indicating he is still alive, officials say. Other military and intelligence officials have sharply disagreed with their assessment, and the analysis by some commanders of the Joint Special Operations Command does not represent a consensus of all Special Operations forces leaders, military officials said.
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld is pushing for an expanded use of Special Operations forces units beyond Afghanistan to kill or capture terrorists. As a result, Special Operations leaders are trying to determine whether the hunt for the elusive Qaeda leader is still the best use of the limited resources of the most elite units.
At least publicly, President Bush and Rumsfeld have said they do not know whether bin Laden is alive or dead. Gen. Tommy R. Franks, commander of the American military effort in Afghanistan, said last week that he had not seen "convincing proof" that Mr. bin Laden had been killed. But General Franks added that he did not know bin Laden's fate. American intelligence agencies have received reports from people on the ground in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region claiming to have information that Mr. bin Laden is alive.
Still, the assessment suggesting he is dead comes from the commanders of the elite military units responsible for counterterrorism, which have been on the front lines of the hunt for bin Laden and other Qaeda leaders in Afghanistan. They are so respected that senior intelligence and law enforcement officials elsewhere have been briefed on the assessment, leading to more debate on whether bin Laden is dead or alive.
Despite the debate within the Special Operations ranks over bin Laden, American and allied ground troops - including the elite commandos - continue to scour Afghanistan, searching for pockets of Qaeda fighters and clues about bin Laden.
In the late spring or early summer, a meeting of Special Operations leaders was held to discuss how to allocate Special Operations resources, officials said. At that meeting, some senior commanders told their colleagues that they believed bin Laden was dead, officials familiar with the meeting said.
The meeting's focus pivoted to implications of that assessment, the officer said. "It was a discussion of what requires us to stay there in Afghanistan," the officer said. "If Osama bin Laden is presumed dead, then it would reduce the pressure to keep the forces in Afghanistan."
"There have been no formal intelligence assessments suggesting definitive conclusions concerning bin Laden within the Special Operations forces community," said a military spokesman. "However, there are some members of the intelligence community within S.O.F. who have asserted independently in formal settings that it is their personal belief bin Laden was killed at Tora Bora.
Now, as President Bush weighs whether to attack Iraq, and Rumsfeld is seeking an expanded worldwide role for Special Operations forces, a number of Special Operations commanders say their scarce elite forces could be employed more effectively if sent on other sensitive missions, military officials said.
"The issue is, what are your options, and how many places do you stay engaged and committed?" said one senior military officer. "If the assumption is bin Laden is dead, then maybe you don't need those assets in Afghanistan anymore." Despite the desire by some Special Operations officials to move on to new assignments, others in American intelligence agencies, the military and law enforcement remain uncertain about Mr. bin Laden's fate.
Intelligence officials acknowledge that they have no hard evidence that bin Laden escaped Tora Bora. American intelligence agencies have not obtained any intercepted communications indicating that . bin Laden is alive since the assault on Tora Bora. In mid-December, the United States intercepted a radio transmission on which analysts believe they could hear bin Laden giving orders to Qaeda fighters. He has been silent ever since.
Rumsfeld says that he has no idea whether bin Laden is alive or dead. "He's either alive and in Afghanistan or somewhere else, or he's dead," Rumsfeld said last month. But in July, Dale Watson, the F.B.I.'s counterterrorism chief, became the first senior government official to say publicly that he believed Mr. bin Laden was dead. Watson said that he did not have hard evidence to support his opinion. It is unclear whether he had heard about the commanders' assessment before making his statement. |
