Why gold should go up.. :)
It’s amazing how many people out there still do not understand the basic bullish fundamentals of the gold market. Even a large number of analysts are providing their clients with erroneous advice, by telling them to ‘wait for a bottom’. Many of these clients could well be facing the problem of looking back ruefully at the bottom, long after it is in place.
In order for gold to drop, here are some of the things that need to happen:
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Several major gold discoveries need to be made in an area of the world where there are no rigid government regulations and no environmentalist groups, to slow down the building of a mine.
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South Africa needs to rapidly solve its power shortages.
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The rest of Africa needs to be able to supply ample power to the mines that are currently having problems obtaining enough power.
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Chinese people need to stop moving up from lower classes into the middle class, and must stop spending money on gold jewelry.
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The Chi-Coms need to stop buying gold for the treasury. (Currently almost all of the gold mined in China, remains inside the country).
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The Russian government needs to stop buying gold for the treasury. (Russia is reaping the benefits of high oil and gas prices, and has nothing better to convert that money into than gold).
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The US Treasury needs to prove that the claimed 9,000 tonnes of gold that were last audited in 1953, still exist, and are not leased out.
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India needs to stop growing its economy, and needs to persuade its newlyweds not to ask for the ‘gift of gold’.
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Oil and gas prices need to drop.
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Food prices need to stabilize.
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The ongoing banking crisis needs to be solved, and the banking system must prove itself to be (not sound as a dollar – but), sound as gold.
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The world’s central banks need to stop adding funds to the money supply.
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The Consumer Price Index, (real CPI– not fictitious numbers), needs to stop rising.
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The US government needs to balance the federal budget. (The Federal deficit for the first five months of f/yr 2007-2008 is -263 billion dollars, compared to -162 billion dollars during the same period the year before).
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Your neighbor, your brother-in-law and your shoe-shine boy must all be buying gold.
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Finally, AND THIS IS KEY: ‘Real interest rates’ (T-bills less CPI) need to be positive by at least +2%. (They are currently negative by that much).
I’ve said this before, and it bears repeating: Build a file on your favorite analyst. Keep track of the recommendations. If he or she is wrong half the time, then why not flip a coin! Don’t pay attention to an analysis that ends with ‘on the other hand’. Remember the words of President Harry S. Truman: “Just give me a one-armed economist.”
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