Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: HammerHead who wrote (4324)	3/27/2001 6:09:07 PM
From: JRI	of 52237

Robert- Let's face it....practically no J6P is thinking this could be a prolonged slowdown....I think consumer confidence figures for this year are going to look like the Naz from Sept-now.....deep drops, rallies (partial retracements)..more deep drops...etc.. US consumer is totally unprepared for a longer-term recession......most folks live paycheck-to-paycheck...hope we don't get one (longer-term recession).....but I don't see how we avoid it....we have massive imbalances in the economy...all built around the recently departed stock market bubble.... As Heinz noted on the CFZ thread.......some major flashpoints exist in Brazil, Argentina, Turkey for world financial markets.... In 1998, US was able to current account deficit the world out of recession...we don't have that luxury any more.....whose going to pull the world economic train? Asia? We going to be cutting back big-time on their exports....Europe? What we have is just beginning to hit them.... I think the combination of the end of a superbull market since 1982, the biggest financial bubble in history, and structural problems in the U.S. economy, and economies abroad...well, that's mean a lot more pain...then just a dusting at 0% growth for a quarter (or 2)....we'll see... (Sorry to be so negative...but I really don't see a way out for the U.S. or world economy until these huge structural problems are solved. To really solve them, it will take time)

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