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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Jack L. Dlugach who wrote (3697)10/29/1996 5:52:00 AM
From: douglas hurd   of 42771
 
Jack,

Novell used to be in the position of creating the very market that they were selling products into.

They led hardware vendors around by helping them develop compatible nic cards and other peripherals and then thanked them by charging them 1000s of dollars. As a hardware vendor, you really had no choice as they were the only game in town. In 1990-2 every poor salesguy like myself owned a few shares in Novell. Every director of every Novell distributor had some. While I didn't own the stock, it seemed that everyone in the IT business that I met had some and was planning retirement.

Microsoft and Banyan took a few attempts at breaking into the NOS market and failed. People thought Novell was going to go on to rule the world. And they kind of do. The installed base is massive.

Many of the big corporates and resellers that I speak to say they Novell is still popular but end users want to hedge their bets. Many large companies are now installing NT in big numbers.

As for small businesses, you need to have Microsoft before you can install Novell. But now you can install Microsoft and more Microsoft.

I think the bottom line is that the Netware market is a little saturated. Novell relies on upgrades for a lot of its business. Maybe 50% I'd guess. Microsoft now has a NOS. And NOvell has run into a few problems in the last couple of years.

And so there you are. 10 bucks a share. All the statements form all the VPs in the world mean nothing. Its action that counts. And right now I don't see a whole lot of it.

Good Luck,

Douglas
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