Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 316.33

+1.3%

Dec 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: Pam who wrote (43272)	2/7/2009 2:34:05 PM
From: Gottfried	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 95563

Pam, I have a chart of AMAT with SEMI bookings [below]. It shows price anticipates SEMI bookings by a few months. Note how in early 2001 price was wrong [expecting a V bottom in SEMI bookings]. Since SEMI bookings bottoms are U-shaped now, price will probably give us more than one chance to buy low. AMAT price with SIA sales is also shown. Here the relationship is not so clear. PS: I'm reading Nassim Taleb's "The black swan" and liked his analogy for the danger of predicting the future from the past: a turkey got fed regularly on the farm and expected this pleasant life to continue, until the morning before Thanksgiving the unexpected happened. Not unexpected to the farmer, though.

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