Ketchup King......that is the nature of the EWave beast and why it has its naysayers. There are always a number of valid counts, not unlimited, but several valid. Each individuals count may be skewed by his perception of what the market 'should' do and, equally as important, by his view of where he is at in the Long Term count. I do not adhere to EWave as preordained, as Prechter, nor do I believe in assigning rigid % parameters as Prechter has attempted to do as of late (ie... wave must be 20% of wave 1 etc.etc.) I look for FORM fitting within certain rule guidelines.
It is certainly feasible that the move from Oct 8th is a "B" wave......and it is also valid to count it as wave 1 up.
For me, I have always attempted to get the major averages to'agree' on a particular count, they may not have the same internal form, but should stay within the same larger wave count. And I like to examine all of the 'reasonable' counts on a particular move.......at this particular time all of the aforementioned counts, if they are completed, point to the same thing, a substantial decline.
When combined with other more conventional methods; trendlines,channels,forks,support/resistance etc.etc.etc.
and when the majority suggest reversal, Hey, that seems like a good spot to take a shot, and use stops accordingly if its not.
The idea of this being a "B" wave rather smacks of Elliott's
original opinion that the top of the market was late 1928 and the high of 1929 was a "B" wave, or unorthodox top. it could be....i don't care.....there are lots of counts and other TA that says...EXCUSE ME,BUT IS THIS ELEVATOR HEADED DOWN?
me thinks good percentage bet that it is
but do not forget
I SMELL BAD |
