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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Ilaine who wrote (43107)	9/11/2002 7:18:48 PM
From: maceng2	of 281500

Nobody would keep advertising for business that lost them money. When they stop making loans is when you should worry. Yep. That's called "step four". Debts liquidated. Thanks to SI Magner the Kondratieff Wave Cycle is to break the cycle into the four seasons and I think they’re very apropos. Spring being the rebirth of the economy. Summer being the period when the economy really flourishes and it’s also the time when you get the inflation. Autumn being a period when people feel good even though winter lies ahead. You still get those Indian Summer days and so on. Then Winter being the time when the economy sleeps and it’s the season when debt is flushed from the economy so that it can start refreshed in the Spring., financialsense.com I see things the way Ian does. "JIM: Ian, one more final question. Is there anything on the horizon, anything that you would see, any event that could take place, anything that could happen that would change your opinion? IAN: I’ve tried to think of that. The only thing that I can think, and I’ve said to other people, is I know that the central banks are going to fight this tooth-and-nail. They have to because it’s really what they must perceive that is the deflationary depression that lies ahead. So they’re going to do everything they can to fight it and I mean, I think one might say by fair means or foul, so that I don’t know what kind of legal means will be implemented to sort of thwart what I see happening. But, in the end I don’t see that there’s any way that the governments of the world can offset the coming deflationary depression."

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