Timing the market daily isn't an exact science and most traders understand this. That does not suggest that one should avoid trying, however, just because it's hard.
Top professional batters hit 1 out of 3 at-bats. Top quarterbacks complete 2 of 3 passes. For a market timer, a reasonable goal is 3 outa 5 or 60% correct.
The best timers have quite a juggle to contend with. Getting too immersed in daily alert signals and TA, one can overlook the convergence of longer cycles, so one eye must always be on the long-term big picture and the other on the short term signals. At the same time, one ear has to be listening to economic reports and forecasts and another to trader/investor sentiment or psychology.
Occasionally, particularly in a market within a transitional period (as NASDAQ has been in since September), chart trend points reach key levels where none can call it but the entire market. A good timer will indicate a crossroads has been reached and state his/her case for their expectation of what will follow. At these moments, it's a 50-50 game, though, and others should recognize that a 'best guess' is only that.
As a timer myself, I acknowledge that my projected turn points are often off by a day or two, but sometimes they are exactly on. I don't share what I think in pursuit of a guruhood complete with followers. I share because it's a factor useful to my trading that I think others can gain from as well. Others share their insights and TA about specific stocks that I glean from, and sharing is a type of ethic, not a mode of self-promotion, for most.
Occasionally, I am faced with conflicting signals and can't find a clear answer. When that occurs, I'll go visit 3 or 4 other known timers to see if they have some missing piece of the puzzle that I may have overlooked. Within SI, Zeev is one of about 3 sources I review, precisely because he is thorough, articulate and successful more often than not.
Often, utilizing some different data sets, I find his conclusions mirror my own. At least once every coupla months though, I'll find him reaching an opposite conclusion that requires me to revisit my findings to discover I missed a crucial point or two, and I'll issue a corrective of my own. Very rare is the occasion when I find us making different calls that I'll stick my neck out and say my call stands alone... I'll say it if I think I'm right but will acknowledge that others like Zeev are not in agreement, so anyone reading my posts can take things with a grain of salt.
It's easier to market time on an intermediate-term basis, but that's not as useful to daytraders. For instance, looking at NASDAQ over many months, its chart is displaying something seen all the time in individual stocks: a basing pattern. I indicated a couple of months ago that I felt the finale of this basing would occur in June/July and that Spring could prove exceptionally difficult to trade because there'd be a lot of relatively horizontal trading going on.
So calling it day-to-day will be very challenging. The dynamics of terrorism, which can intrude at a moment's notice, is entirely unpredictable as well.
Yet for his sustained long-term efforts at doing so, my hat remains off to Zeev, (and a coupla others who post here frequently) for doing a difficult job well, not perfectly. I pass on my thanks, because I find it useful in my trading and in some of my projections. |
