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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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From: russwinter10/13/2005 7:15:06 AM
   of 110194
 
Goldman Sachs notes:

US Retail: Examining the impact of higher energy prices across retail stocks
October 12, 2005

Higher energy prices are likely to continue pressuring consumer spending this winter as home heating costs increase sharply from a year ago, just as gasoline costs have spiked in recent months. Specifically, energy spending (gasoline, natural gas, electricity, home heating oil) could impact discretionary purchases by $24 billion year over year in the December-March period, equal to 0.8% of PCE and 2.0% of retail sales during that period based on our estimates. Given the timing of billing, the impact is likely to be sharpest in the first quarter of 2006. Retailers may not be prepared for this drag, and we see widespread risk to estimates. Exposure will likely be greatest for retailers that serve lower- and middle-income customers and operate a large proportion of their stores in cold-weather states
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