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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (4343)4/7/1999 6:28:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
MrGreenJeans: Out on a Limb

Ok Justa, just put on my tutu and here is the deal:

The Federal Reserve Valuation Model that forecasts an under- or overvalued stock market is stating that tonight's market is 20% plus overvalued. Depending on assumptions in rates and profits, if rates fall to 4.5% and profits rise approximately 7.5% this year the market should be at about 1235 on the S and P which would make the market somewhere in the vicinity of 6% plus overvalued (someone else do the math my calculator is not handy).

My projections are as follows: If everything goes as expected the market trades sideways for a while and perhaps the economy catches up with the market and we go higher from here based on fundamentals. Early to mid-April should be strong for technology companies especially those companies semiconductor sector due to all the large cap companies having a better than expected 1st quarter. Msft should have their usual kick ass quarter and Vodafone which reports at the end of May is posting record numbers which should correspond to record results. At the moment all is right with the world.

There will probably be a nasty correction sometime this year and I sure as hell wish I knew when it was coming because I would like to sidestep it.

Gotta go and plant the corn...more later.
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