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DISK/TREND NEWS
Optical and removable disk drives
Computer growth markets attract a diverse group
of disk drives, including both winners and losers
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MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. -- The computer industry's rapid growth and diversity of applications has stimulated the development of numerous types of disk drives which enable users to remove data from systems so that it can be organized by individual projects, stored in a safe place, or exchanged with others. 1999 worldwide sales revenues will top $10 billion for all types of disk drives which offer removability, with shipments of more than 260 million drives, according to the new DISK/TREND report on optical and removable disk drives.
Disk drives from 61 manufacturers are included in the report, including CD-ROM and DVD-ROM drives, CD/DVD writable drives, other read/write optical disk drive formats, rigid disk cartridge drives, card format rigid disk drives, high capacity floppy drives and low capacity standard floppy drives.
The sales outlook for the nine disk drive product groups included in the report is a mixed bag. DVD-ROM drives are projected to pass up CD-ROM drives in shipments within two years, excellent growth is forecast for writable CD/DVD drive formats, miniaturized hard disk drive cards will develop entirely new markets, shipments of standard 1.44 megabyte floppy drives will peak within two years, and highcapacity floppy drives will continue a strong growth pattern.
Here are other highlights from the 1999 DISK/TREND Report on optical and removable disk drives:
DVD-ROM drive shipments got off to a slow start due to format uncertainties, relatively high prices, and the limited selection of content available on DVD disks, but the pace started to pick up in 1998. Shipments in that year jumped to 5.7 million drives, and the rapid growth now underway is projected to result in shipments of 92.8 million drives in 2002. DVD-ROM drive shipments will exceed the level for CD-ROM drives within two years and by 2002 will be three times the level for CD-ROM drives. Rapidly declining prices and performance improvements for DVD-ROM drives will make drive customers the big winners in this product transition, as DVD-ROM drives go through the same rapid product cycles of speed improvements and price declines that have characterized the CD-ROM market in recent years.
Writable optical disk drives include numerous formats, using disks ranging from 3.5 to 12 inches in diameter, but the type now enjoying rapid growth is the CD-RW. Available since 1997, CD-RW drives can use either write-once or rewritable disks. Falling prices and improved availability of CD-RW drives have made this format the leading growth product among all types of writable optical disk drives, at least for a few years. However, by 2002 significant growth in drive shipments is also expected for DVD rewritable formats and for new high capacity rewritable drives using combinations of optical and magnetic recording technologies.
Although numerous product announcements have been made during the last few years, the only high capacity floppy drives currently produced in quantity are the Iomega 100/250 megabyte Zip and 40 megabyte Clik! drives, plus the 120 megabyte SuperDisk, backed by several companies. In spite of confusion on interchange standards, 12.7 million drives were shipped in 1998, with growth to 34.3 million drives forecasted for 2002. More drive manufacturers are expected to join the fray by 2002, and miniaturized models such as the Clik! are expected to get off to a promising start with producers of mobile equipment, such as digital cameras.
Despite continued predictions of imminent death by producers of competitive products, the low capacity standard 1.44 megabyte floppy drive is still shipping in large quantities. It's capacity is adequate for typical word processing applications and most system manufacturers consider today's prices nominal. Shipments are projected to finally peak in 2001, with a slow decline in the following years.
Removable formats for rigid magnetic disk drives have had a long history, going back more than three decades. In recent years, 3.5 inch disk cartridge drives and 1.8 inch drives in PC Card formats have been the principal products, but the limited size of the specialized markets for these drives has held down shipments and forced many drive manufacturers out of the business. The new element in 1999 is the initial availability of one inch drives in CompactFlash Card formats, such as IBM's “microdrive”. These drives are targeted at a variety of mobile equipment applications, with increasing shipments projected during the next few years.
In addition to revenue and unit shipment projections for nine types of disk drives, the DISK/TREND Report provides statistics and analysis on cumulative shipments, competitive market shares of manufacturers, and a review of competing data storage technologies. The report also contains basic product specifications for 290 CD/DVD read-only disk drives, 45 CD/DVD writable disk drives, 9 rigid disk cartridge drives, 8 card format rigid disk drives, 42 high capacity flexible disk drives, and 53 low capacity flexible disk drives. Profiles are provided on 78 existing and former manufacturers of optical and removable disk drives, including 22 with corporate headquarters in the United States, 51 in Asia, and 5 in Europe.
The new study on the worldwide optical and removable disk drive industry was released as part of the 1999 DISK/TREND Report, a detailed annual business review of the worldwide disk drive industry published by DISK/TREND, Inc. A separate report on rigid disk drives was released in July, and a study on disk drive arrays will be published in October.
The 1999 DISK/TREND Report on optical and removable disk drives is priced at $2,325. Subscriptions to the complete 1999 DISK/TREND Report, including individual reports on rigid disk drives, optical and removable disk drives, and disk drive arrays are available individually or at the discounted price of $6,240 for the complete set by contacting DISK/TREND, Inc., 1925 Landings Drive, Mountain View, CA 94043, or through the company's web site, www.disktrend.com.
OPTICAL AND REMOVABLE DISK DRIVES
Sales revenues -------------Forecast---------------
in millions of 1998
U.S. Dollars Revenues 1999 2000 2001 2002
-------------- -------- ---- ---- ---- ----
CD-ROM 4,290.8 3,529.5 2,568.2 1,604.7 803.4
optical disk drives
DVD-ROM 650.5 1,198.9 1,877.0 3,189.4 4,241.8
optical disk drives
CD/DVD writable 1,306.5 2,207.8 2,772.1 3,180.8 3,337.0
optical disk drives
Read/Write optical drives 611.5 606.3 569.0 464.2 356.2
less than 4 gigabytes
Read/Write optical drives 25.0 30.6 139.7 387.4 624.9
more than 4 gigabytes
Rigid disk 271.1 180.6 187.9 210.5 242.5
cartridge drives
Card format 36.4 46.0 58.1 80.2 96.7
rigid disk drives
High capacity 846.8 944.8 1,034.9 1,069.3 1,073.3
flexible disk drives
Low capacity 1,620.1 1,491.9 1,381.1 1,301.6 1,152.0
flexible disk drives ________ ________ ________ ________ ________
TOTAL REVENUES 9,658.7 10,236.4 10,588.0 11,488.1 11,927.8
Source: 1999 DISK/TREND Report
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