Hello johariwindow,
> The info on 802.11b is quite interesting, and is the
> first I am hearing of this solution. Regarding a
> technical based discussion, I have to admit I am not well
> versed enough to engage in any type of substantive
> dialogue...(I surely would not mind lurking upon someone
> else's words of wisdom, yours included)....
I appreciate the response, and you ask some very good questions that will help to spark some discussion. I'm sure that we will all gain from it ...
> If you would be so kind as to share your thoughts on how
> "disruptive" and ubiquitous Bluetooth will become.
As I have been following the development of 802.11b I have had in my mind the "issues" that I felt would impact ubiquitous adoption. Some of these were the speed, and the cost. With the "b" version of 802.11 the speed issues were addressed, with support for 11Mbps, falling to 5Mbs, 2Mbps, and 1Mbps as the distance increases to the antenna. The cost issues started to be addressed with Apple's announcements of the iBook. They offered access points and cards at a fraction of the going prices - a list price 75% lower(!) than competitors products. Of course these were targeting the Apple consumers. About 60 days ago (+/-) Lucent dropped their prices for the PC products by the same 75%!! As all vendors have followed suit, and manufacturing rates are increasing the price issue, IMHO, is no longer an issue.
So I now see a shipping technology, with a huge number of supporting vendors, that is gaining momentum. At Network+Interop I could have easily seen 20+ vendors booths with shipping 802.11 and 802.11b products.
Bluetooth, IMHO, has come from a different perspective. I believe that it was fully intended to be a solution for *very* short range, lower power, lower speed connectivity. There is talk of higher-power/longer range ... but I'm afraid that the momentum of 802.11b will prevent this from catching on.
So I see Bluetooth (and want it quickly!) as a solution for very short range connectivity:
- cell phone to ear-piece (very big!)
- cell phone to laptop (big)
- PDA to cell phone
- PDA to laptop
- PDA to cell phone
- etc., etc.
I'm sure that there are other good examples on the Bluetooth web site ... in my examples above I will admit that I am not a fan of PDAs and believe that their lifetimes are about to be shortened dramatically ... wearable computers are coming quickly, IMHO.
At Networld+Interop I was only able to locate two vendors with demonstrations, I could not find any shipping products. I didn't look real hard either ...
> Also,does the statement the "higher power mode being
> dominant" mean that the TEMIC and Philsar solutions are
> not going to be part of a burgeoning sector? I would
> think that the power amplifiers would be a necessity...?
I'm not sure the details of the contributions of these companies, but what I have read and learned about Bluetooth is that there are two "modes" that it can be used in. I see the "low power" mode being very useful ... I see the "high power" mode being competitive to 802.11b and I do not think it will survive.
Gartner Group on their paper estimates:
"By the second half of 2001, 20 percent of mobile devices (e.g. laptops, smart phones and PDAs) will incorporate Bluetooth wireless LAN technology (0.6 probability)"
This leads me to believe that they are not confident of the prediction, and that they are also questioning the values that Bluetooth will provide. I see the most value in the very short range, voice applications. Or low speed data ...
> In the spirit of remaining on topic, I am sure I have
> seen GG quoted as saying favorable things regarding
> Bluetooth.
I believe that the cell phone companies see Bluetooth as a point solution for some purposes ... but even Nokia is working hard to help 802.11b dominate ...
I'm sure that George has picked up on the cell phone vendors points solutions ... maybe there is more to hear ...
> Anyone (even Mr Gilder himself) care to corroborate?
I have also written directly to George to present the subject, and I hope that he will provide his expertise and perspective also!
Scott C. Lemon |
