Random thoughts and time for another Thread Poll:
Since this thread is centrally focused on semiconductor equipment stocks I will attempt to keep the focus of this post on that subject.
Despite the fact that the btb continues to rise some cracks in the recovery have become apparent recently in the guidance of companies that have been reporting. At this point in time I am 100% long on stocks in this sector, or industry. I had been hoping for a Bear Market rally due to extremely high readings on the VIX as well as other reading in investor sentiment reaching extreme levels. We have got a rally underway but not for the SOX.
From a technical standpoint on a long term monthly chart we can see that the SOX has penetrated its lower Bollinger Band with an RSI in the 30's.
stockcharts.com[l,a]mhclyiay[d19950101,20020731][pb50!b200!d20,2!i!f][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!Ul14!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Lc20!Lah12,26,9]&pref=G
This long term chart would seem to indicate that a bottoming effort is taking place. Where will the bottom be? A look at a shorter time frame chart shows that the bottom may be even lower:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50,200!d20,2!c20][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
I expect the RSI to dip back below 30 on the chart above before a bottom is in. Taking the two charts into consideration leads this casual technician to estimate the SOX like the NASDAQ itself has another 25% drop ahead of it before we find an actual bottom. This will put the SOX at approximately 250 and the NASDAQ at 1000.
So here is the poll question:
Will the SOX bottom at 250? If not will the bottom be higher or lower?
All the above are of course my own opinions and may not portend any relationship to actual reality.
Worth looking at is Amateau Investor's Weekend Analysis:
amateur-investors.com
Long Term Nasdaq Monthly Chart:
stockcharts.com[l,a]mhclyiay[d19950101,20020731][pb50!b200!d20,2!i!f][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!Ul14!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Lc20!Lah12,26,9]&pref=G
SOX Components with One Day Delay on the Candlesticks. Note the high RSI on most of the stocks that may indicate these stocks can sell off even more:
finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+INTC+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+TER+TXN+XLNX&d=c&k=c3&t=3m&a=r14&p=b%2Cv&l=on&z=m&q=c
SOX Components/ Six Month Charts:
finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+INTC+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+TER+TXN+XLNX&d=t
RtS |
