Bubley Bubbles on Vodafone's OS and Platform Strategy
<< A nice win for Series 60, but no Series 40 at Vodafone? This would also limit Treo and RIMM.... >>
Bubley shares your thoughts. <ggg>
>> Vodfone's OS Strategy: Impact To Handset Makers
Dean Bubley
November 7th, 2006
wireless.seekingalpha.com
Vodafone (VOD) announced Monday morning that it's cut a deal with Microsoft (MSFT) on handset software. Leaving aside the fact that the company still uses the appallingly anachronistic word "terminal" in its PR headline, this is actually a pretty interesting strategy.
The Windows Mobile deal is part of a Voda's three-platform appoach to future devices, also embracing Symbian/S60 and - interestingly and up-till-now hardly mentioned - Linux. This makes Vodafone look similar to NTT DoCoMo's approach to handsets, which is based on its own flavour of Symbian OS, plus Linux and recently also Windows Mobile.
The press release has an interesting paragraph:
"Over the next five years, Vodafone expects to focus on supporting three standard terminal platforms across its portfolio of mobile phones: Microsoft Windows Mobile, Symbian/S60 and Linux. The first device to use the software produced under the agreement is planned to be with Samsung and is expected to launch in the first half of 2007."
The first thing to note is the realistic 5-year view, which clearly shows awareness of the need for Moore's Law to catch up and bring up low-end devices towards the level needed to host a proper OS. The second thing is the qualifiers "expect" and "focus"... ie a get-out clause which enables Voda to add additional platforms as well if things change. The third thing is which "Linux"? (or is it actually several variants?)
And the fourth thing is to try and map how any of this fits to the major device vendors, and how this could fit around their own software roadmaps.
Nokia (NOK) - OK, no surprises with S60 for high-end devices, but what happens to S40, its massmarket platform? Does it (a) disappear as S60 and Symbian moves downmarket? or (b) maybe it turns into a layer on top of a Linux OS like the 770 Internet tablet? or it it (c) Nokia ignores this & persuades Voda it needs special dispensation as it's market leader?
Motorola (MOT) - over a 5-year period, most of its high/mid devices should migrate to its inhouse Linux platform. May still have some low-end embedded ones, though, and if it continues to create "must have" phones like the RAZR, then again Voda might need to be flexible. Plus there's probably going to be a few MS-powered phones for enterprise, especially since the Symbol acquisition.
Samsung - seems to still be promiscuous, supporting Linux, Symbian and Microsoft. Still lots of inhouse embedded OS use, though....
SonyEricsson (ERICY) - Hmm, this is a tricky one given how popular some of its recent phones have been. It's going to be narked at having to change its embedded (and very good) featurephone platform, and also possibly ditch its UIQ smartphone platform. I wonder if S-E is also going to have a good reason to be on Voda's "exception" list.... although maybe it's got a Linux card up its sleeve ....
HTC - no problem, clearly.
LG - again, like Samsung, pretty promiscous with OS's so should be able to fit into Voda's vision
Research in Motion (RIMM) -- oh dear.
The other interesting question is what sits on the top of all these OS's. Will it be a proprietary Vodafone IMS+other stuff client? Will it be a third-party layer like Flash? Or will it vary between targeted customer segments?
And lastly.... I wonder if all this means Java's days are numbered?
Dean Bubley is the Founder of Disruptive Analysis, an independent technology industry analyst and consulting firm. An analyst with over 14 years’ experience, he primarily specialises in wireless, networking, and telecoms fields. His present focus is on wireless technology, especially the evolution of mobile device architecture & software, fixed-mobile convergence, shifts in service provider value chains, enterprise mobility, in-building technologies, wireless broadband, and the integration of cellular and WLAN. He was formerly an equity analyst, covering communications and software stocks with Granville Baird, the UK arm of US-based investment bank Robert W. Baird. Prior to that, he had spent eight years at UK research firm Datamonitor, where he co-founded the company's Technology business unit, directly managed the Internet & Networking competency area and custom consulting operations, and held the titles of Chief Analyst and Director of Consulting. Mr Bubley has extensive experience in both published analytical research and bespoke consultancy, and has regularly spoken at industry conferences and events. He holds a BA in Physics from Keble College, Oxford University. ###
>> Sony Ericsson and UIQ
Dean Bubley
November 07, 2006
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Interesting. S-E has today announced that it's acquiring the UIQ interface business from Symbian. I guess in hindsight this really isn't any big surprise - apart from S-E, nobody else really makes UIQ phones in any meaningful volume any more (I think there's still a Moto phone in production, and maybe an ODM one). I can't imagine Symbian's other shareholders can have been too chuffed at effectively subsidising S-E's software development.
More interesting is what S-E will do with UIQ in future. It is unclear to me whether this signals a push to drive Symbian further down its product range - perhaps as a better way to do operator customisation & multitasking, or as a platform for IMS services. Given S-E's recent good form with handsets like its K800i, it must be in two minds - not messing about with an existing high-end featurephone platform that works fine, vs. having to continue to evolve this for the uncertain applications of the future.
If S-E does use UIQ in a greater range of devices, and it also carries on creating must-have phones, I reckon that Vodafone may already be rethinking yesterday's software platform announcement and contemplating adding a fourth OS to its short-list .... ###
- Eric - |
