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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

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2:02 PM EST

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To: stak who wrote (43718)	1/3/1998 4:27:00 PM
From: stak	of 186894

High Definition Television-- HDTV HDTV is probably a couple of years away and it's also not the natural turf of either Intel or Microsoft. But, humor me and listen for a second. Television is set to go to digital broadcast from analog in the near future. (It will be quite awhile before analog is dropped so don't expect overnight changes). Why would I mention HDTV?!? What is the relevance to the pc industry? Let me put forward this scenario: The real competition for Intel will not be AMD or Cyrix in the future. The penetration of pcs in the US has been stuck at about 40% of households. The remaning 60% have been reluctant to take the pc plunge. I truly believe that the pcs' real obstacle to higher market penetration is going to be the HDTV. In a couple of years when HDTV debuts, I strongly think that a high percentage of consumers will be using the spare two or three thousand of disposable income on a HDTV,NOT ON A 2nd or 3rd PC. Most definitely not a 2-3,000$ first pc. This will be murder on sales forecasts of all pc related companies. The day of the 3,000$ pc is dead.likely the 2,000$ pc as well when HDTV hits its stride. In 1998,pc's could be down to the $500 range or less, will Intel find a way to cash in? I don't feel it will. If a $1,000 pc is "segment zero" then can a $500 pc be "segment sub-zero"? Can Intel make margins on $500 pcs??? Microsoft on the other hand is not nearly as affected by the downturn of pc prices. It still sells a Windows95, CE or NT O/S. no matter how high or low the cost of the pc. And don't forget Microsoft is going to make more coin selling WIN98 in a few months. I don't see Microsoft being affected (good or bad) by the emergence of HDTV in the future either. Well then again who knows Microsoft could have a plan or two for HDTV. DISPOSABLE INCOME WILL SPLIT BY THE YEAR 2000 1) IT WILL GO TO BUYING A FIRST OR EXTRA PC OR DVD. 2) IT WILL GO TO BUYING A HDTV Which would you spend your dollar on?!? Think of the demographics: The boomers are gettin to middle and senior ages. At that age the eyes start to go. I can just hear " Oh dear,look the picture is so much sharper let's buy HDTV I don't understand that computer crap anyway."

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