The A/D chart as promised-
geocities.com
Comments:
The NYSE A/D put in a major top in April of 98, fell hard into the fall, and recovered somewhat into July of 99, where it put in a second top. The downward slope steepened from there into last fall. Since then it has put in a couple of tops forming a moderated downslope.
At this time, it appears that the A/D line is testing the moderated downslope off of the 7/99 secondary top.
It will be hazardous to speculate what the resolution will be, because there are several outcomes possible. I 'll list them in the order of highest to lowest odds (IMO)-
1) The A/D slides sideways thru the moderated downslope line, and shortly thereafter puts in another top, thereby establishing a further moderated downslope.
2) The A/D turns south again within the next couple of days, hence keeping under this trendline, and sending the market back south.
3) The A/D breaks convincingly through the moderated downslope, beginning a prolonged bull run, until it reaches the big downtrend off the 2 major tops (blue line).
4) The A/D blows through all resistance lines and the Dow heads to 36,000 by the end of 2001.
5) I make big money this year going long chip stocks and internets. <g>
Regards,
TW |
